US Treasury Etf Forecast - Naive Prediction
| UTHY Etf | 41.49 0.27 0.66% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of US Treasury 30 on the next trading day is expected to be 41.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.63. UTHY Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength momentum indicator of US Treasury's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the etf is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using US Treasury hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of US Treasury 30 from the perspective of US Treasury response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards US Treasury using US Treasury's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards UTHY using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of US Treasury's stock price.
US Treasury Implied Volatility | 0.37 |
US Treasury's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of US Treasury 30 stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if US Treasury's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that US Treasury stock will not fluctuate a lot when US Treasury's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of US Treasury 30 on the next trading day is expected to be 41.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.63. US Treasury after-hype prediction price | USD 41.47 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of US Treasury to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current UTHY contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that US Treasury 30 will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0231% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With US Treasury trading at USD 41.49, that is roughly USD 0.009595 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating US Treasury's daily price movement you should consider acquiring US Treasury 30 options at the current volatility level of 0.37%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 UTHY Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast US Treasury's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in US Treasury's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for US Treasury stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current US Treasury's open interest, investors have to compare it to US Treasury's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of US Treasury is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in UTHY. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
US Treasury Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine UTHY price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for UTHY using various technical indicators. When you analyze UTHY charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
US Treasury Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of US Treasury 30 on the next trading day is expected to be 41.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.63.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict UTHY Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that US Treasury's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
US Treasury Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest US Treasury | US Treasury Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
US Treasury Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting US Treasury's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. US Treasury's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 40.62 and 41.60, respectively. We have considered US Treasury's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of US Treasury etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent US Treasury etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.9201 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1579 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0038 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.6296 |
Predictive Modules for US Treasury
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as US Treasury 30. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.US Treasury After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of US Treasury at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in US Treasury or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of US Treasury, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
US Treasury Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting US Treasury's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on US Treasury's historical news coverage. US Treasury's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 40.98 and 41.96, respectively. We have considered US Treasury's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
US Treasury is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of US Treasury 30 is based on 3 months time horizon.
US Treasury Etf Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as US Treasury is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading US Treasury backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with US Treasury, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
41.49 | 41.47 | 0.00 |
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US Treasury Hype Timeline
US Treasury 30 is at this time traded for 41.49. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. UTHY is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.05%. %. The volatility of related hype on US Treasury is about 49000.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 41.49. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of US Treasury to cross-verify your projections.US Treasury Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to US Treasury's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict US Treasury's future price movements. Getting to know how US Treasury's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how US Treasury may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CA | Xtrackers California Municipal | (0.05) | 11 per month | 0.04 | (0.84) | 0.20 | (0.16) | 0.68 | |
| RINF | ProShares Inflation Expectations | (0.04) | 2 per month | 0.05 | (0.36) | 0.35 | (0.31) | 0.87 | |
| XHYD | BondBloxx ETF Trust | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.11 | (0.36) | 0.34 | (0.26) | 1.20 | |
| TTT | ProShares UltraPro Short | 1.19 | 9 per month | 1.11 | 0.04 | 3.07 | (1.75) | 6.36 | |
| IBOT | VanEck Robotics ETF | (1.05) | 4 per month | 1.21 | 0.06 | 1.85 | (2.35) | 5.42 | |
| PSFM | Pacer Swan SOS | (0.04) | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.34) | 0.42 | (0.26) | 0.90 | |
| MYCJ | SPDR SSGA My2030 | (0.02) | 1 per month | 0.05 | (0.72) | 0.24 | (0.16) | 0.52 | |
| RAYC | Rayliant Asset Management | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.88 | 0.01 | 1.81 | (1.18) | 7.60 | |
| MYCG | SPDR SSGA My2027 | 0.00 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (1.59) | 0.12 | (0.08) | 0.36 | |
| COAL | Exchange Traded Concepts | 0.02 | 11 per month | 1.51 | 0.07 | 2.55 | (2.49) | 7.29 |
Other Forecasting Options for US Treasury
For every potential investor in UTHY, whether a beginner or expert, US Treasury's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. UTHY Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in UTHY. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying US Treasury's price trends.US Treasury Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with US Treasury etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of US Treasury could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing US Treasury by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
US Treasury Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how US Treasury etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading US Treasury shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying US Treasury etf market strength indicators, traders can identify US Treasury 30 entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 29.09 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 1.173913 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 41.41 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 41.43 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.22 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.27 |
US Treasury Risk Indicators
The analysis of US Treasury's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in US Treasury's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting uthy etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.3937 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.4838 | |||
| Variance | 0.234 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for US Treasury
The number of cover stories for US Treasury depends on current market conditions and US Treasury's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that US Treasury is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about US Treasury's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of US Treasury to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.
The market value of US Treasury 30 is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of UTHY that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of US Treasury's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is US Treasury's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because US Treasury's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect US Treasury's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between US Treasury's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if US Treasury is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, US Treasury's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.