Vipshop Holdings Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| V1IP34 Stock | BRL 44.60 0.40 0.89% |
Vipshop Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Vipshop Holdings stock prices and determine the direction of Vipshop Holdings Limited's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Vipshop Holdings' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time The value of RSI of Vipshop Holdings' share price is above 80 . This entails that the stock is significantly overbought by investors. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 93
Buy Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Vipshop Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Vipshop Holdings Limited from the perspective of Vipshop Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Vipshop Holdings Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 44.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.80. Vipshop Holdings after-hype prediction price | BRL 44.6 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Vipshop |
Vipshop Holdings Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Vipshop price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Vipshop using various technical indicators. When you analyze Vipshop charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Vipshop Holdings Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 5th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Vipshop Holdings Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 44.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41, mean absolute percentage error of 1.32, and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.80.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Vipshop Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Vipshop Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Vipshop Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Vipshop Holdings | Vipshop Holdings Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Vipshop Holdings Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Vipshop Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Vipshop Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 42.23 and 46.97, respectively. We have considered Vipshop Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Vipshop Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Vipshop Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.3886 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0774 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4066 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0083 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 24.8 |
Predictive Modules for Vipshop Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vipshop Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Vipshop Holdings After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Vipshop Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Vipshop Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Vipshop Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Vipshop Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Vipshop Holdings' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Vipshop Holdings' historical news coverage. Vipshop Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 42.23 and 46.97, respectively. We have considered Vipshop Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Vipshop Holdings is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Vipshop Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Vipshop Holdings Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Vipshop Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Vipshop Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Vipshop Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.15 | 2.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Any time |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
44.60 | 44.60 | 0.00 |
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Vipshop Holdings Hype Timeline
Vipshop Holdings is at this time traded for 44.60on Sao Paulo Exchange of Brazil. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Vipshop is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.15%. %. The volatility of related hype on Vipshop Holdings is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 44.60. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 0.17. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. Vipshop Holdings recorded earning per share (EPS) of 23.67. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be any time. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vipshop Holdings to cross-verify your projections.Vipshop Holdings Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Vipshop Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Vipshop Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how Vipshop Holdings' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Vipshop Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| N2LY34 | Annaly Capital Management | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.05 | 0.03 | 2.14 | (1.77) | 4.88 | |
| TSMC34 | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.62 | 0.12 | 4.09 | (2.92) | 10.38 | |
| O2NS34 | ON Semiconductor | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.03 | 0.26 | 4.95 | (2.53) | 14.72 | |
| A1MT34 | Applied Materials | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.18 | 0.20 | 6.18 | (3.99) | 13.79 | |
| P1SA34 | Public Storage | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.41 | 0.04 | 2.82 | (1.87) | 24.21 | |
| M1LC34 | Melco Resorts Entertainment | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 0.00 | (6.14) | 23.29 | |
| D1DG34 | Datadog | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 5.42 | (7.11) | 25.21 | |
| N1XP34 | NXP Semiconductors NV | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.12 | 0 | 4.59 | (4.61) | 15.95 |
Other Forecasting Options for Vipshop Holdings
For every potential investor in Vipshop, whether a beginner or expert, Vipshop Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Vipshop Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Vipshop. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Vipshop Holdings' price trends.Vipshop Holdings Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Vipshop Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Vipshop Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Vipshop Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Vipshop Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Vipshop Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Vipshop Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Vipshop Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Vipshop Holdings Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 44.6 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 44.6 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.20) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.40) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 93.19 |
Vipshop Holdings Risk Indicators
The analysis of Vipshop Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Vipshop Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting vipshop stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8594 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.22 | |||
| Variance | 4.93 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Vipshop Holdings
The number of cover stories for Vipshop Holdings depends on current market conditions and Vipshop Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Vipshop Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Vipshop Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Vipshop Stock
When determining whether Vipshop Holdings is a strong investment it is important to analyze Vipshop Holdings' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Vipshop Holdings' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Vipshop Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vipshop Holdings to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.