VAT Group Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| VACN Stock | CHF 498.00 0.30 0.06% |
VAT Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of VAT Group's share price is below 20 . This entails that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.125 | EPS Estimate Current Year 7.5836 | EPS Estimate Next Year 9.8111 | Wall Street Target Price 459.625 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.241 |
Using VAT Group hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of VAT Group AG from the perspective of VAT Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of VAT Group AG on the next trading day is expected to be 498.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 8.37 and the sum of the absolute errors of 502.40. VAT Group after-hype prediction price | CHF 513.99 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
VAT |
VAT Group Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine VAT price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for VAT using various technical indicators. When you analyze VAT charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
VAT Group Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 11th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of VAT Group AG on the next trading day is expected to be 498.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 8.37, mean absolute percentage error of 185.91, and the sum of the absolute errors of 502.40.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict VAT Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that VAT Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
VAT Group Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest VAT Group | VAT Group Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
VAT Group Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting VAT Group's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. VAT Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 494.61 and 501.39, respectively. We have considered VAT Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of VAT Group stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent VAT Group stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.4979 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -2.77 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 8.3733 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0204 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 502.4 |
Predictive Modules for VAT Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as VAT Group AG. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.VAT Group After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of VAT Group at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in VAT Group or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of VAT Group, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
VAT Group Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting VAT Group's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on VAT Group's historical news coverage. VAT Group's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 448.47 and 517.38, respectively. We have considered VAT Group's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
VAT Group is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of VAT Group AG is based on 3 months time horizon.
VAT Group Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as VAT Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading VAT Group backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with VAT Group, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.71 | 3.39 | 15.69 | 2.37 | 7 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
498.00 | 513.99 | 3.15 |
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VAT Group Hype Timeline
VAT Group AG is at this time traded for 498.00on SIX Swiss Exchange of Switzerland. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 15.69, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -2.37. VAT is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 513.99 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 15.34%. The price increase on the next news is anticipated to be 3.15%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.71%. The volatility of related hype on VAT Group is about 101.41%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 495.63. VAT Group AG has accumulated 241.79 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.46, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of VAT Group to cross-verify your projections.VAT Group Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to VAT Group's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict VAT Group's future price movements. Getting to know how VAT Group's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how VAT Group may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MIKN | Mikron Holding AG | 0.1 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 3.45 | (4.10) | 19.62 | |
| MEDX | medmix AG | 0.12 | 2 per month | 0.98 | 0.15 | 2.93 | (2.15) | 12.84 | |
| METN | Metall Zug AG | (32.00) | 2 per month | 1.09 | 0.01 | 2.46 | (1.95) | 9.34 | |
| BYS | Bystronic AG | 7.00 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 3.53 | (3.38) | 8.61 | |
| SWTQ | Schweiter Technologies AG | 1.50 | 1 per month | 3.11 | (0.03) | 4.55 | (4.66) | 16.81 | |
| ARBN | Arbonia AG | 0.13 | 3 per month | 2.60 | (0.01) | 4.27 | (4.19) | 13.54 | |
| KLIN | Klingelnberg AG | (0.25) | 5 per month | 1.84 | (0.0005) | 3.64 | (3.03) | 11.12 |
Other Forecasting Options for VAT Group
For every potential investor in VAT, whether a beginner or expert, VAT Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. VAT Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in VAT. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying VAT Group's price trends.VAT Group Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with VAT Group stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of VAT Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing VAT Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
VAT Group Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how VAT Group stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading VAT Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying VAT Group stock market strength indicators, traders can identify VAT Group AG entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 790.7 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.04) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 499.45 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 498.97 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 1.0E-4 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.60) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.30) |
VAT Group Risk Indicators
The analysis of VAT Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in VAT Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting vat stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.08 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.76 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.27 | |||
| Variance | 10.73 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.19 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.08 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.32) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for VAT Group
The number of cover stories for VAT Group depends on current market conditions and VAT Group's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that VAT Group is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about VAT Group's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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VAT Group Short Properties
VAT Group's future price predictability will typically decrease when VAT Group's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of VAT Group AG often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential VAT Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. VAT Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 30 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 158.2 M |
Additional Tools for VAT Stock Analysis
When running VAT Group's price analysis, check to measure VAT Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy VAT Group is operating at the current time. Most of VAT Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of VAT Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move VAT Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of VAT Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.