Al Frank Mutual Fund Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

Al Frank Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine VALAX price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for VALAX using various technical indicators. When you analyze VALAX charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur. Triple exponential smoothing for Al Frank - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Al Frank prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Al Frank price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Al Frank Fund.

Al Frank Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Al Frank Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 30.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23, mean absolute percentage error of 0.14, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.89.

Al Frank Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Al Frank

Al Frank Price Prediction

Buy or Sell Advice

Al Frank Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Al Frank mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Al Frank mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Al Frank observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Al Frank Fund observations.

Predictive Modules for Al Frank

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Al Frank Fund. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 29.35 30.73 32.11 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 27.66 32.67 34.05 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 29.05 30.12 31.18 Details

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Al Frank. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Al Frank's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Al Frank's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Al Frank Fund.

Al Frank After-Hype Price Density Analysis

Al Frank Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

Al Frank Mutual Fund Price Outlook Analysis

Notes

Al Frank Hype Timeline

Al Frank Fund is at this time traded for 30.73. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.24. VALAX is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.29%. %. The volatility of related hype on Al Frank is about 170.14%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 30.97. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 1.62. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. Al Frank Fund last dividend was issued on the 9th of December 2019. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be very soon. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Al Frank to cross-verify your projections.

Al Frank Related Hype Analysis

Other Forecasting Options for Al Frank

For every potential investor in VALAX, whether a beginner or expert, Al Frank's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. VALAX Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in VALAX. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Al Frank's price trends.

Al Frank Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

Al Frank Market Strength Events

Al Frank Risk Indicators

Story Coverage note for Al Frank

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Other Information on Investing in VALAX Mutual Fund