Innovate Corp Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| VATE Stock | USD 5.65 0.04 0.70% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Innovate Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 5.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.14. Innovate Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Innovate Corp stock prices and determine the direction of Innovate Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Innovate Corp's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Innovate Corp's share price is at 56. This entails that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Innovate Corp, making its price go up or down. Momentum 56
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.433 |
Using Innovate Corp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Innovate Corp from the perspective of Innovate Corp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Innovate Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 5.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.14. Innovate Corp after-hype prediction price | USD 5.65 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Innovate Corp to cross-verify your projections. Innovate Corp Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Innovate price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Innovate using various technical indicators. When you analyze Innovate charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Innovate Corp Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Innovate Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 5.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.14.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Innovate Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Innovate Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Innovate Corp Stock Forecast Pattern
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Innovate Corp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Innovate Corp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Innovate Corp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.22 and 10.08, respectively. We have considered Innovate Corp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Innovate Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Innovate Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.0648 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -7.0E-4 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1498 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0292 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.14 |
Predictive Modules for Innovate Corp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Innovate Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Innovate Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Innovate Corp After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Innovate Corp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Innovate Corp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Innovate Corp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Innovate Corp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Innovate Corp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Innovate Corp's historical news coverage. Innovate Corp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1.15 and 10.15, respectively. We have considered Innovate Corp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Innovate Corp is relatively risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Innovate Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Innovate Corp Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Innovate Corp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Innovate Corp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Innovate Corp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.24 | 4.43 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 7 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
5.65 | 5.65 | 0.00 |
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Innovate Corp Hype Timeline
Innovate Corp is at this time traded for 5.65. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.11. Innovate is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.24%. %. The volatility of related hype on Innovate Corp is about 932.63%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.76. About 60.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 0.74. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. Innovate Corp recorded a loss per share of 5.66. The entity last dividend was issued on the 2nd of June 2025. The firm had 1:10 split on the 9th of August 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Innovate Corp to cross-verify your projections.Innovate Corp Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Innovate Corp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Innovate Corp's future price movements. Getting to know how Innovate Corp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Innovate Corp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SHIM | Shimmick Common | 0.26 | 6 per month | 3.72 | 0.14 | 12.69 | (5.53) | 26.47 | |
| DFLI | Chardan NexTech Acquisition | (0.58) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 13.98 | (17.43) | 58.61 | |
| TISI | Team Inc | 0.06 | 11 per month | 3.04 | (0.01) | 4.97 | (5.23) | 21.87 | |
| JLHL | Julong Holding Limited | 0.19 | 3 per month | 7.28 | 0.06 | 9.17 | (11.95) | 32.35 | |
| AIRJ | Montana Technologies | 4.66 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 13.28 | (8.01) | 31.81 | |
| HTCO | Caravelle International Group | 0.16 | 4 per month | 6.48 | 0.06 | 16.94 | (11.44) | 49.11 | |
| SDST | Stardust Power | (0.11) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 8.84 | (11.39) | 26.43 | |
| HMR | Heidmar Maritime Holdings | 0.12 | 24 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 6.41 | (6.12) | 17.52 | |
| GWH | ESS Tech | (0.01) | 22 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 7.57 | (9.47) | 61.03 | |
| TORO | Toro | 0.00 | 7 per month | 2.42 | 0.11 | 7.31 | (4.28) | 48.84 |
Other Forecasting Options for Innovate Corp
For every potential investor in Innovate, whether a beginner or expert, Innovate Corp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Innovate Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Innovate. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Innovate Corp's price trends.Innovate Corp Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Innovate Corp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Innovate Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Innovate Corp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Innovate Corp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Innovate Corp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Innovate Corp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Innovate Corp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Innovate Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Innovate Corp Risk Indicators
The analysis of Innovate Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Innovate Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting innovate stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.14 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.36 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.64 | |||
| Variance | 21.56 | |||
| Downside Variance | 14.25 | |||
| Semi Variance | 11.29 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.57) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Innovate Corp
The number of cover stories for Innovate Corp depends on current market conditions and Innovate Corp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Innovate Corp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Innovate Corp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Innovate Corp Short Properties
Innovate Corp's future price predictability will typically decrease when Innovate Corp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Innovate Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Innovate Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Innovate Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 13.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 48.8 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Innovate Corp to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Innovate Stock refer to our How to Trade Innovate Stock guide.You can also try the Money Flow Index module to determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators.
Is Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Innovate Corp. If investors know Innovate will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Innovate Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (5.66) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.433 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of Innovate Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Innovate that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Innovate Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Innovate Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Innovate Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Innovate Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Innovate Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Innovate Corp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Innovate Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.