Vanguard Short-Term Mutual Fund Forward View

VBIRX Fund

USD 10.23 -0.01 -0.1%

This Naive Prediction projection for Vanguard Short-Term is fitted to the equity's recent daily closes. Low error metrics relative to the price level indicate the model fits recent trading behavior well. Older observations carry less weight in the current projection as the price series extends. High SAE relative to the price level signals cumulative forecast drift over the evaluation period. The Naive Prediction model projects Vanguard Short-Term at 10.22 for the next trading day, below the most recent closing price. This forecast is one analytical input among many and should be assessed in the context of broader analysis.

A naive forecasting model for Vanguard Short-Term is a special case of the moving average where the smoothing period is one. The forecast for Vanguard Short Term Bond on a given trading day is simply the observed closing price of the previous period. Because it uses only a single lag, this model is limited to one-period-ahead forecasts.

Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 9th of May

Over a 90-day horizon, the Naive Prediction model forecasts Vanguard Short-Term at 10.22 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0016 , and sum of absolute errors of 1.02 .

This represents a very tight forecast — the model closely tracks Vanguard Short-Term's recent price behavior. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.

Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Vanguard Short-Term

Vanguard Short-Term Price Prediction

Research Analysis

Forecasted Value

The projected range for Vanguard Short-Term reflects the model's ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios for the next trading day. The projected band runs from roughly 10.06 on the downside to about 10.38 on the upside. The moderate spread reflects defined uncertainty around the forecast.

Market Value

10.23

10.06

Downside

10.22

Expected Value

10.38

Upside

Target Odds

Above Odds

Below Odds

Model Predictive Factors

The table below summarizes the Naive Prediction model's error metrics for Vanguard Short-Term mutual fund. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.

AIC	Akaike Information Criteria	112.0886
Bias	Arithmetic mean of the errors	None
MAD	Mean absolute deviation	0.0164
MAPE	Mean absolute percentage error	0.0016
SAE	Sum of the absolute errors	1.0176

The naive model produces a tight forecast range but offers no smoothing of noise or trend detection. It serves primarily as a baseline benchmark — if a more complex model cannot outperform the naive forecast, it may indicate that Vanguard Short-Term price movements are largely random over the selected horizon.

Other Forecasting Options for Vanguard Short-Term

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to Vanguard Mutual Fund price swings identify potential support and resistance zones. Extreme price moves in Vanguard occur more frequently than standard risk models assume. Support and resistance levels derived from Vanguard Short-Term's historical data identify zones where buying or selling pressure has stalled moves. A volume spike without a corresponding price move signals accumulation or distribution ahead of a directional breakout.

Vanguard Short-Term Comparable Funds

These peer funds are related to Vanguard Short-Term and help frame its category context. This peer set gives investors a way to compare Vanguard Short-Term's structure and outcomes against similar portfolio vehicles.

Vanguard Short Term Bond Vanguard Intermediate Term Bond Vanguard Intermediate Term Bond Vanguard Intermediate Term Corporate Vanguard Intermediate Term Porate iShares SAMPP 500 Vanguard Large Cap Index Vanguard Large Cap Index Invesco NASDAQ 100 Vanguard Short Term Inflation Protected American Airlines Group Alcoa Corp Apple Inc Best Buy Co Citigroup

Risk & Return

Correlation

Vanguard Short-Term Market Strength Events

Rate of Change and Momentum readings for Vanguard Short-Term measure the velocity of recent price moves rather than direction alone. These indicators add context to how recent sessions in Vanguard Short-Term have behaved. These indicators are most informative when viewed alongside Vanguard Short-Term's volume profile and volatility measures. The Price Action Indicator distills each session's open-high-low-close into a single directional score for Vanguard Short-Term.

	Rate Of Daily Change	1.0
	Day Median Price	10.23
	Day Typical Price	10.23
	Price Action Indicator	-0.01
	Period Momentum Indicator	-0.01

Vanguard Short-Term Risk Indicators

Standard deviation and variance for Vanguard Short-Term measure total price dispersion, while semi-deviation isolates only the downside moves. Higher variance relative to sector peers signals that Vanguard Short-Term's price path has been less predictable over the measured period. Analyzing Vanguard Short-Term's risk indicators helps explain how recent moves compare with its broader trading range. A narrow gap between mean deviation and standard deviation indicates that Vanguard Short-Term's return distribution is relatively symmetric.

	Mean Deviation	0.1138
	Semi Deviation	0.1127
	Standard Deviation	0.1602
	Variance	0.0257
	Downside Variance	0.0317
	Semi Variance	0.0127
	Expected Short fall	-0.18

Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

	Naive Prediction
	Simple Exponential Smoothing
	Double Exponential Smoothing
	Triple Exponential Smoothing
	Simple Regression
	Polynomial Regression
	Simple Moving Average
	4 Period Moving Average
	8 Period Moving Average
	20 Period Moving Average