International Government Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Regression

VCIFX Fund  USD 10.85  0.01  0.09%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of International Government Bond on the next trading day is expected to be 10.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.56. International Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of International Government's share price is below 20 . This entails that the mutual fund is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of International Government's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with International Government Bond, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using International Government hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of International Government Bond from the perspective of International Government response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of International Government Bond on the next trading day is expected to be 10.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.56.

International Government after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 10.85  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of International Government to cross-verify your projections.

International Government Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine International price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for International using various technical indicators. When you analyze International charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through International Government price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

International Government Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 3rd of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of International Government Bond on the next trading day is expected to be 10.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03, mean absolute percentage error of 0.001, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.56.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict International Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that International Government's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

International Government Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest International GovernmentInternational Government Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

International Government Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting International Government's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. International Government's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.66 and 11.02, respectively. We have considered International Government's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
10.85
10.84
Expected Value
11.02
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of International Government mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent International Government mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria111.1729
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0255
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0024
SAESum of the absolute errors1.5562
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as International Government Bond historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for International Government

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as International Government. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
10.6710.8511.03
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
10.6510.8311.01
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
10.7510.8110.88
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as International Government. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against International Government's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, International Government's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in International Government.

Other Forecasting Options for International Government

For every potential investor in International, whether a beginner or expert, International Government's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. International Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in International. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying International Government's price trends.

International Government Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with International Government mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of International Government could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing International Government by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

International Government Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of International Government's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of International Government's current price.

International Government Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how International Government mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading International Government shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying International Government mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify International Government Bond entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

International Government Risk Indicators

The analysis of International Government's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in International Government's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting international mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in International Mutual Fund

International Government financial ratios help investors to determine whether International Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in International with respect to the benefits of owning International Government security.
Portfolio Rebalancing
Analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets
Bond Analysis
Evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios.
Sectors
List of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities
Portfolio Center
All portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios