Nasdaq-100 Index Mutual Fund Forward View - Polynomial Regression

VCNIX Fund  USD 27.13  0.57  2.15%   
NASDAQ-100 Mutual Fund outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Nasdaq-100 Index's share price is below 20 . This entails that the mutual fund is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Nasdaq-100 Index's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Nasdaq 100 Index Fund, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Nasdaq-100 Index hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Nasdaq 100 Index Fund from the perspective of Nasdaq-100 Index response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Nasdaq 100 Index Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 27.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.97.

Nasdaq-100 Index after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 36.81  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Nasdaq-100 Index to cross-verify your projections.

Nasdaq-100 Index Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine NASDAQ-100 price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for NASDAQ-100 using various technical indicators. When you analyze NASDAQ-100 charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Nasdaq-100 Index polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Nasdaq 100 Index Fund as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Nasdaq-100 Index Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 7th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Nasdaq 100 Index Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 27.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31, mean absolute percentage error of 0.15, and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.97.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict NASDAQ-100 Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Nasdaq-100 Index's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Nasdaq-100 Index Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Nasdaq-100 Index  Nasdaq-100 Index Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Nasdaq-100 Index Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Nasdaq-100 Index's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Nasdaq-100 Index's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 26.09 and 28.13, respectively. We have considered Nasdaq-100 Index's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
27.13
27.11
Expected Value
28.13
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Nasdaq-100 Index mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Nasdaq-100 Index mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.2256
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.311
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0114
SAESum of the absolute errors18.97
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Nasdaq-100 Index historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Nasdaq-100 Index

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Nasdaq 100 Index. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
23.9036.8137.80
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
23.9027.9728.96
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
26.8527.5428.22
Details

Nasdaq-100 Index After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Nasdaq-100 Index at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Nasdaq-100 Index or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Nasdaq-100 Index, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Nasdaq-100 Index Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Nasdaq-100 Index's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Nasdaq-100 Index's historical news coverage. Nasdaq-100 Index's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 23.90 and 37.80, respectively. We have considered Nasdaq-100 Index's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
27.13
36.81
After-hype Price
37.80
Upside
Nasdaq-100 Index is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Nasdaq 100 Index is based on 3 months time horizon.

Nasdaq-100 Index Mutual Fund Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Nasdaq-100 Index is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Nasdaq-100 Index backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Nasdaq-100 Index, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.03 
1.02
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
Any time
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
27.13
36.81
38.59 
0.00  
Notes

Nasdaq-100 Index Hype Timeline

Nasdaq 100 Index is at this time traded for 27.13. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. NASDAQ-100 is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 36.81 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is insignificant. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 38.59%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.03%. The volatility of related hype on Nasdaq-100 Index is about 30600.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 27.13. Debt can assist Nasdaq-100 Index until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Nasdaq-100 Index's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Nasdaq 100 Index sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for NASDAQ-100 to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Nasdaq-100 Index's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be any time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Nasdaq-100 Index to cross-verify your projections.

Nasdaq-100 Index Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Nasdaq-100 Index's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Nasdaq-100 Index's future price movements. Getting to know how Nasdaq-100 Index's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Nasdaq-100 Index may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Nasdaq-100 Index

For every potential investor in NASDAQ-100, whether a beginner or expert, Nasdaq-100 Index's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. NASDAQ-100 Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in NASDAQ-100. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Nasdaq-100 Index's price trends.

Nasdaq-100 Index Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Nasdaq-100 Index mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Nasdaq-100 Index could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Nasdaq-100 Index by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Nasdaq-100 Index Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Nasdaq-100 Index mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Nasdaq-100 Index shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Nasdaq-100 Index mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Nasdaq 100 Index Fund entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Nasdaq-100 Index Risk Indicators

The analysis of Nasdaq-100 Index's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Nasdaq-100 Index's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting nasdaq-100 mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Nasdaq-100 Index

The number of cover stories for Nasdaq-100 Index depends on current market conditions and Nasdaq-100 Index's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Nasdaq-100 Index is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Nasdaq-100 Index's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Other Information on Investing in NASDAQ-100 Mutual Fund

Nasdaq-100 Index financial ratios help investors to determine whether NASDAQ-100 Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in NASDAQ-100 with respect to the benefits of owning Nasdaq-100 Index security.
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