Velo3D Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| VELO Stock | USD 16.63 2.63 18.79% |
Velo3D Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Velo3D's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Velo3D's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Velo3D fundamentals over time.
As of today, The relative strength index (RSI) of Velo3D's share price is at 54. This entails that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Velo3D, making its price go up or down. Momentum 54
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.792 | EPS Estimate Current Year (3.91) | EPS Estimate Next Year (1.07) | Wall Street Target Price 6 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.654 |
Using Velo3D hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Velo3D from the perspective of Velo3D response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Velo3D on the next trading day is expected to be 16.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 74.74. Velo3D after-hype prediction price | USD 24.1 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Velo3D to cross-verify your projections. Velo3D Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Velo3D price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Velo3D using various technical indicators. When you analyze Velo3D charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Velo3D Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Velo3D on the next trading day is expected to be 16.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.27, mean absolute percentage error of 2.86, and the sum of the absolute errors of 74.74.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Velo3D Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Velo3D's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Velo3D Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Velo3D | Velo3D Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Velo3D Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Velo3D's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Velo3D's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.58 and 30.85, respectively. We have considered Velo3D's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Velo3D stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Velo3D stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.2199 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.2668 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.1126 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 74.7433 |
Predictive Modules for Velo3D
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Velo3D. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Velo3D After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Velo3D at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Velo3D or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Velo3D, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Velo3D Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Velo3D's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Velo3D's historical news coverage. Velo3D's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 9.96 and 38.24, respectively. We have considered Velo3D's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Velo3D is relatively risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Velo3D is based on 3 months time horizon.
Velo3D Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Velo3D is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Velo3D backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Velo3D, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
2.69 | 14.14 | 8.26 | 1.25 | 12 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
16.63 | 23.86 | 43.48 |
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Velo3D Hype Timeline
Velo3D is at this time traded for 16.63. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 8.26, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 1.25. Velo3D is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 23.86 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 43.48%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 2.69%. The volatility of related hype on Velo3D is about 3040.86%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 17.88. Velo3D currently holds 15.92 M in liabilities. Velo3D has a current ratio of 0.58, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Velo3D's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity.Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 12 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Velo3D to cross-verify your projections.Velo3D Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Velo3D's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Velo3D's future price movements. Getting to know how Velo3D's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Velo3D may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| WLFC | Willis Lease Finance | 4.09 | 11 per month | 2.34 | 0.15 | 5.67 | (3.93) | 11.05 | |
| CFRLF | China Aircraft Leasing | (0.39) | 1 per month | 0.00 | 0.15 | 1.59 | 0.00 | 21.28 | |
| DWWEF | Diamond Estates Wines | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| CATWF | China Tontine Wines | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| MJWNY | Naked Wines plc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.07 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 11.94 | |
| NLOP | Net Lease Office | (0.13) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 1.85 | (1.87) | 7.34 | |
| BDN | Brandywine Realty Trust | 0.15 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 3.42 | (3.72) | 9.05 | |
| SRRTF | Slate Grocery REIT | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.58 | 0.06 | 1.41 | (1.30) | 4.53 |
Other Forecasting Options for Velo3D
For every potential investor in Velo3D, whether a beginner or expert, Velo3D's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Velo3D Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Velo3D. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Velo3D's price trends.Velo3D Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Velo3D stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Velo3D could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Velo3D by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Velo3D Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Velo3D stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Velo3D shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Velo3D stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Velo3D entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Velo3D Risk Indicators
The analysis of Velo3D's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Velo3D's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting velo3d stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 10.9 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 8.64 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 14.13 | |||
| Variance | 199.58 | |||
| Downside Variance | 84.11 | |||
| Semi Variance | 74.59 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (14.09) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Velo3D
The number of cover stories for Velo3D depends on current market conditions and Velo3D's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Velo3D is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Velo3D's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Velo3D Short Properties
Velo3D's future price predictability will typically decrease when Velo3D's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Velo3D often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Velo3D's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Velo3D's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 847.3 K | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.2 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Velo3D to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Velo3D Stock, please use our How to Invest in Velo3D guide.You can also try the Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm.
Will Asset Management & Custody Banks sector continue expanding? Could Velo3D diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Velo3D. If investors know Velo3D will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Velo3D data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.792 | Earnings Share 1.37 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.654 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Velo3D is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Velo3D that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Velo3D's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Velo3D's true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because Velo3D's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Velo3D's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Velo3D's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Velo3D is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Meanwhile, Velo3D's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.