Vanguard Quality ETF Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| VFQY ETF | USD 161.21 -0.07 -0.04% |
Vanguard Quality's Double Exponential Smoothing forecast is computed from observed closing prices over the selected horizon. The accuracy statistics below distinguish a well-fitted model from one that is smoothing over meaningful price movement. The fit is assessed against recent observations, so the output reflects the latest available data. The Double Exponential Smoothing model projects Vanguard Quality at 161.60 for the next trading day, above the most recent closing price. The Double Exponential Smoothing output reflects statistical model results and is provided for reference purposes.
Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 9th of May
Over a 90-day horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing model forecasts Vanguard Quality at 161.60 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 1.14 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.01 , and sum of absolute errors of 68.65 .This represents a very tight forecast — the model closely tracks Vanguard Quality's recent price behavior. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.
ETF Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Vanguard Quality | Vanguard Quality Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast range for Vanguard Quality defines statistically derived downside and upside boundaries based on model performance. The projected band runs from roughly 160.68 on the downside to about 162.53 on the upside. The narrow range indicates limited short-term dispersion.
Model Predictive Factors
The table below summarizes the Double Exponential Smoothing model's error metrics for Vanguard Quality ETF. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1926 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.1442 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0074 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 68.6519 |
Other Forecasting Options for Vanguard Quality
Analyzing Vanguard Quality's price movement through moving averages at different time horizons reveals whether short-term momentum aligns with the longer-term trend. Touches of the upper or lower band in Vanguard Quality's chart signal overbought or oversold conditions. The rate of change in Vanguard Quality's trading volume often precedes price movements in Vanguard Quality.Vanguard Quality Comparable Funds
The instruments listed below are comparable funds for Vanguard Quality and provide a practical reference set. Peer review is strongest when it focuses on NAV trend, discount or premium to NAV, yield, and fee burden. Category-relative analysis helps separate fund-specific behavior from broader market moves affecting the whole group. Taken together, these peers help define a more relevant comparison frame for Vanguard Quality.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Vanguard Quality Market Strength Events
For investors tracking Vanguard Quality Factor, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of ETF behavior. When Rate of Change diverges from price direction, it often signals weakening momentum before a visible reversal in Vanguard Quality. These metrics are particularly useful when Vanguard Quality ETF shows divergence from broader market trends.
Vanguard Quality Risk Indicators
Analyzing Vanguard Quality's basic risk indicators provides a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for vanguard quality etf. Expected shortfall estimates the average loss in the worst-case tail scenarios, going beyond what standard deviation alone captures for Vanguard Quality. Semi-deviation focuses exclusively on returns below the mean, making it a more conservative risk gauge for Vanguard Quality than full standard deviation.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7512 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.933 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.9614 | |||
| Variance | 0.9244 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.9942 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.8705 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.72 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.