Vanguard Health Etf Forecast - Simple Regression
| VHT Etf | USD 293.87 1.14 0.39% |
Vanguard Etf outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength momentum indicator of Vanguard Health's share price is at 58. This entails that the etf is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Vanguard Health, making its price go up or down. Momentum 58
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Oversold | Overbought |
Using Vanguard Health hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Vanguard Health Care from the perspective of Vanguard Health response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Vanguard Health Care on the next trading day is expected to be 296.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.42 and the sum of the absolute errors of 208.68. Vanguard Health after-hype prediction price | USD 293.87 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Vanguard Health Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Vanguard price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Vanguard using various technical indicators. When you analyze Vanguard charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Vanguard Health Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Vanguard Health Care on the next trading day is expected to be 296.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.42, mean absolute percentage error of 19.61, and the sum of the absolute errors of 208.68.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Vanguard Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Vanguard Health's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Vanguard Health Etf Forecast Pattern
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Vanguard Health Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Vanguard Health's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Vanguard Health's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 296.10 and 297.79, respectively. We have considered Vanguard Health's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Vanguard Health etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Vanguard Health etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.0867 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.4209 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0121 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 208.6763 |
Predictive Modules for Vanguard Health
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vanguard Health Care. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Vanguard Health After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Vanguard Health at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Vanguard Health or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of Vanguard Health, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Vanguard Health Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Vanguard Health's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Vanguard Health's historical news coverage. Vanguard Health's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 293.02 and 294.72, respectively. We have considered Vanguard Health's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Vanguard Health is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Vanguard Health Care is based on 3 months time horizon.
Vanguard Health Etf Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as Vanguard Health is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Vanguard Health backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Vanguard Health, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.14 | 0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Any time |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
293.87 | 293.87 | 0.00 |
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Vanguard Health Hype Timeline
On the 26th of January Vanguard Health Care is traded for 293.87. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Vanguard is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.14%. %. The volatility of related hype on Vanguard Health is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 293.87. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be any time. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vanguard Health to cross-verify your projections.Vanguard Health Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Vanguard Health's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Vanguard Health's future price movements. Getting to know how Vanguard Health's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Vanguard Health may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| VHCIX | Vanguard Health Care | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.51 | 0.07 | 1.96 | (1.02) | 4.43 | |
| VFH | Vanguard Financials Index | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.95 | (0.05) | 1.40 | (1.74) | 4.47 | |
| VONV | Vanguard Russell 1000 | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.49 | 0.04 | 1.34 | (1.05) | 3.01 | |
| IWV | iShares Russell 3000 | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.82 | (0.07) | 1.22 | (1.27) | 3.43 | |
| DFUS | Dimensional Equity ETF | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.83 | (0.07) | 1.11 | (1.23) | 3.46 | |
| RDVY | First Trust Rising | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.69 | 0.03 | 1.60 | (1.34) | 3.79 | |
| FNDF | Schwab Fundamental International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.43 | 0.15 | 1.20 | (1.08) | 2.64 | |
| IWS | iShares Russell Mid Cap | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.65 | 0.03 | 1.58 | (1.24) | 3.47 | |
| FTEC | Fidelity MSCI Information | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 1.40 | (2.66) | 5.44 | |
| XLP | Consumer Staples Select | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.54 | 0.03 | 1.37 | (0.83) | 2.69 |
Other Forecasting Options for Vanguard Health
For every potential investor in Vanguard, whether a beginner or expert, Vanguard Health's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Vanguard Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Vanguard. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Vanguard Health's price trends.Vanguard Health Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Vanguard Health etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Vanguard Health could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Vanguard Health by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Vanguard Health Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Vanguard Health etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Vanguard Health shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Vanguard Health etf market strength indicators, traders can identify Vanguard Health Care entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Vanguard Health Risk Indicators
The analysis of Vanguard Health's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Vanguard Health's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting vanguard etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.6548 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.4498 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.8461 | |||
| Variance | 0.7158 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.392 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.2023 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.82) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Vanguard Health
The number of cover stories for Vanguard Health depends on current market conditions and Vanguard Health's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Vanguard Health is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Vanguard Health's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vanguard Health to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios.
The market value of Vanguard Health Care is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Vanguard that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Vanguard Health's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Vanguard Health's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Vanguard Health's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Vanguard Health's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Vanguard Health's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Vanguard Health is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Vanguard Health's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.