Viavi Solutions Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

VIAV Stock  USD 17.11  1.43  7.71%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Viavi Solutions on the next trading day is expected to be 16.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.65 and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.49. Viavi Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Viavi Solutions' share price is below 20 . This entails that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Viavi Solutions' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Viavi Solutions and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Viavi Solutions' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Viavi Solutions, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Viavi Solutions' stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.73)
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.1531
EPS Estimate Current Year
0.6733
EPS Estimate Next Year
0.833
Wall Street Target Price
19
Using Viavi Solutions hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Viavi Solutions from the perspective of Viavi Solutions response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Viavi Solutions using Viavi Solutions' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Viavi using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Viavi Solutions' stock price.

Viavi Solutions Short Interest

An investor who is long Viavi Solutions may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Viavi Solutions and may potentially protect profits, hedge Viavi Solutions with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
12.3952
Short Percent
0.091
Short Ratio
3.56
Shares Short Prior Month
12.4 M
50 Day MA
17.475

Viavi Solutions Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Viavi Solutions' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Viavi. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Viavi can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Viavi Solutions. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Viavi Solutions' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Viavi Solutions.

Viavi Solutions Implied Volatility

    
  0.56  
Viavi Solutions' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Viavi Solutions stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Viavi Solutions' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Viavi Solutions stock will not fluctuate a lot when Viavi Solutions' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Viavi Solutions on the next trading day is expected to be 16.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.65 and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.49.

Viavi Solutions after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 19.02  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Viavi Solutions to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Viavi Stock please use our How to Invest in Viavi Solutions guide.At this time, Viavi Solutions' Payables Turnover is fairly stable compared to the past year. Receivables Turnover is likely to climb to 5.86 in 2026, whereas Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 4.23 in 2026. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop to about 184.4 M in 2026. Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to drop to about 15.2 M in 2026.

Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Viavi Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Viavi Solutions' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Viavi Solutions' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Viavi Solutions stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Viavi Solutions' open interest, investors have to compare it to Viavi Solutions' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Viavi Solutions is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Viavi. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

Viavi Solutions Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Viavi price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Viavi using various technical indicators. When you analyze Viavi charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Viavi Solutions' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
1992-06-30
Previous Quarter
423.6 M
Current Value
543.8 M
Quarterly Volatility
222.8 M
 
Dot-com Bubble
 
Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for Viavi Solutions is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Viavi Solutions value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Viavi Solutions Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 11th of January 2026

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Viavi Solutions on the next trading day is expected to be 16.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.65, mean absolute percentage error of 0.67, and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.49.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Viavi Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Viavi Solutions' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Viavi Solutions Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Viavi SolutionsViavi Solutions Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Viavi Solutions Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Viavi Solutions' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Viavi Solutions' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.89 and 20.39, respectively. We have considered Viavi Solutions' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
17.11
16.64
Expected Value
20.39
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Viavi Solutions stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Viavi Solutions stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.7029
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.6474
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.039
SAESum of the absolute errors39.4935
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Viavi Solutions. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Viavi Solutions. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Viavi Solutions

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Viavi Solutions. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
15.2719.0222.77
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
14.3118.0621.81
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
16.1117.7719.43
Details
9 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
17.2919.0021.09
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Viavi Solutions. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Viavi Solutions' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Viavi Solutions' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Viavi Solutions.

Other Forecasting Options for Viavi Solutions

For every potential investor in Viavi, whether a beginner or expert, Viavi Solutions' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Viavi Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Viavi. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Viavi Solutions' price trends.

Viavi Solutions Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Viavi Solutions stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Viavi Solutions could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Viavi Solutions by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Viavi Solutions Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Viavi Solutions' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Viavi Solutions' current price.

Viavi Solutions Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Viavi Solutions stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Viavi Solutions shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Viavi Solutions stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Viavi Solutions entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Viavi Solutions Risk Indicators

The analysis of Viavi Solutions' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Viavi Solutions' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting viavi stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

Explore Investment Opportunities

Build portfolios using Macroaxis predefined set of investing ideas. Many of Macroaxis investing ideas can easily outperform a given market. Ideas can also be optimized per your risk profile before portfolio origination is invoked. Macroaxis thematic optimization helps investors identify companies most likely to benefit from changes or shifts in various micro-economic or local macro-level trends. Originating optimal thematic portfolios involves aligning investors' personal views, ideas, and beliefs with their actual investments.
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Additional Tools for Viavi Stock Analysis

When running Viavi Solutions' price analysis, check to measure Viavi Solutions' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Viavi Solutions is operating at the current time. Most of Viavi Solutions' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Viavi Solutions' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Viavi Solutions' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Viavi Solutions to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.