Viva Wine Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| VIVA Stock | 32.90 0.10 0.30% |
Viva Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the value of RSI of Viva Wine's share price is approaching 37. This entails that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Viva Wine, making its price go up or down. Momentum 37
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Viva Wine hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Viva Wine Group from the perspective of Viva Wine response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Viva Wine Group on the next trading day is expected to be 32.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41 and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.27. Viva Wine after-hype prediction price | SEK 32.8 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Viva |
Viva Wine Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Viva price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Viva using various technical indicators. When you analyze Viva charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Viva Wine Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 25th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Viva Wine Group on the next trading day is expected to be 32.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41, mean absolute percentage error of 0.29, and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.27.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Viva Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Viva Wine's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Viva Wine Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Viva Wine | Viva Wine Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Viva Wine Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Viva Wine's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Viva Wine's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 31.75 and 33.90, respectively. We have considered Viva Wine's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Viva Wine stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Viva Wine stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.8611 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4143 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0119 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 25.2724 |
Predictive Modules for Viva Wine
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Viva Wine Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Viva Wine After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Viva Wine at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Viva Wine or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Viva Wine, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Viva Wine Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Viva Wine's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Viva Wine's historical news coverage. Viva Wine's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 31.72 and 33.88, respectively. We have considered Viva Wine's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Viva Wine is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Viva Wine Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
Viva Wine Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Viva Wine is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Viva Wine backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Viva Wine, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.15 | 1.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Any time |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
32.90 | 32.80 | 0.00 |
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Viva Wine Hype Timeline
Viva Wine Group is at this time traded for 32.90on Stockholm Exchange of Sweden. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Viva is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.15%. %. The volatility of related hype on Viva Wine is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 32.90. About 15.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Viva Wine was at this time reported as 19.36. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 5.48. Viva Wine Group last dividend was issued on the 23rd of May 2022. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be any time. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Viva Wine to cross-verify your projections.Viva Wine Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Viva Wine's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Viva Wine's future price movements. Getting to know how Viva Wine's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Viva Wine may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ZZ-B | Zinzino AB Series | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.14 | 0.03 | 4.74 | (3.79) | 30.24 | |
| HUMBLE | Humble Group AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.56 | (3.55) | 10.14 | |
| LYKO-A | Lyko Group A | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 3.27 | (7.17) | 21.87 | |
| DUNI | Duni AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 1.64 | (2.26) | 8.79 | |
| HAYPP | Haypp Grp Ab | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 4.49 | (5.41) | 11.44 | |
| ARCTIC | Arctic Blue Beverages | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 11.76 | (5.88) | 32.65 | |
| CHEF | Cheffelo AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.96 | 0.04 | 4.19 | (2.93) | 22.97 | |
| HIGHCO-B | High Coast Distillery | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 5.88 | (5.58) | 21.09 | |
| CLEM | Clemondo Group AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.98 | (4.28) | 14.42 |
Other Forecasting Options for Viva Wine
For every potential investor in Viva, whether a beginner or expert, Viva Wine's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Viva Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Viva. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Viva Wine's price trends.Viva Wine Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Viva Wine stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Viva Wine could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Viva Wine by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Viva Wine Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Viva Wine stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Viva Wine shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Viva Wine stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Viva Wine Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Viva Wine Risk Indicators
The analysis of Viva Wine's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Viva Wine's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting viva stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8232 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.18 | |||
| Variance | 1.39 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Viva Wine
The number of cover stories for Viva Wine depends on current market conditions and Viva Wine's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Viva Wine is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Viva Wine's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Viva Wine Short Properties
Viva Wine's future price predictability will typically decrease when Viva Wine's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Viva Wine Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Viva Wine's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Viva Wine's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 62.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 331 M |
Additional Tools for Viva Stock Analysis
When running Viva Wine's price analysis, check to measure Viva Wine's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Viva Wine is operating at the current time. Most of Viva Wine's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Viva Wine's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Viva Wine's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Viva Wine to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.