Vulcan Materials Stock Forward View - 4 Period Moving Average

VMC Stock

USD 283.72 -5.21 -1.80%

This 4 Period Moving Average projection for Vulcan Materials is fitted to the equity's recent daily closes. Low error metrics relative to the price level indicate the model fits recent trading behavior well. The 4 Period Moving Average model projects Vulcan Materials at 288.02 for the next trading day, above the most recent closing price. This forecast is one analytical input among many and should be assessed in the context of broader analysis.

The four-period moving average forecast for Vulcan Materials replaces each daily value with the mean of that value and the four preceding closing prices. This smoothing window is wide enough to dampen short-term noise while still responding to recent price shifts in Vulcan Materials.

4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 10th of May

Over a 90-day horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average model forecasts Vulcan Materials at 288.02 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 6.16 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and sum of absolute errors of 357.43 .

This represents a tight forecast with good short-term tracking of Vulcan Materials' price movement. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.

Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Vulcan Materials

Vulcan Materials Price Prediction

Research Analysis

Forecasted Value

The next-day forecast range for Vulcan Materials defines statistically derived downside and upside boundaries based on model performance. Downside is estimated near 285.99 and upside near 290.05. The narrow range indicates limited short-term dispersion.

Market Value

283.72

285.99

Downside

288.02

Expected Value

290.05

Upside

Target Odds

Above Odds

Below Odds

Model Predictive Factors

The table below summarizes the 4 Period Moving Average model's error metrics for Vulcan Materials stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.

AIC	Akaike Information Criteria	116.7328
Bias	Arithmetic mean of the errors	1.2494
MAD	Mean absolute deviation	6.1626
MAPE	Mean absolute percentage error	0.0217
SAE	Sum of the absolute errors	357.4325

The model is suited for higher-volatility price series where a two-period average would be too reactive. It does not extrapolate a trend equation, so its forecasting utility is limited to one or two periods ahead. Tighter error metrics (lower MAD/MAPE) indicate that Vulcan Materials price movement is well-captured by this smoothing window.

Other Forecasting Options for Vulcan Materials

The autocorrelation structure of Vulcan Materials' daily returns reveals whether Vulcan Materials exhibits momentum, mean-reversion, or random-walk behavior. Separating these elements distinguishes persistent directional moves from temporary noise in Vulcan Materials Stock price data.

Vulcan Materials Related Equities

Investors studying Vulcan Materials often look at related stocks within the Materials space to gauge pricing and results. Profit comparisons show whether Vulcan Materials earns above or below average returns next to its peers. A stock that beats its peers on many metrics often deserves a closer look from value-focused investors. This peer set gives the context needed for a well-rounded view of Vulcan Materials.

Martin Marietta Materials Amrize Franco Nevada Corteva Nucor Corp Gold Fields Ltd AngloGold Ashanti plc Wheaton Precious Metals Cemex SAB de ArcelorMittal SA ADR American Airlines Group Alcoa Corp Apple Inc Best Buy Co Citigroup

Risk & Return

Correlation

Vulcan Materials Market Strength Events

Rate of Change and Momentum readings for Vulcan Materials measure the velocity of recent price moves rather than direction alone. These indicators add context to how recent sessions in Vulcan Materials have behaved.

	Accumulation Distribution	26936.51
	Daily Balance Of Power	-0.63
	Rate Of Daily Change	0.98
	Day Median Price	286.92
	Day Typical Price	285.85
	Price Action Indicator	-5.80
	Period Momentum Indicator	-5.21
	Relative Strength Index	44.74

Vulcan Materials Risk Indicators

Standard deviation and variance for Vulcan Materials measure total price dispersion, while semi-deviation isolates only the downside moves. Higher variance relative to sector peers signals that Vulcan Materials' price path has been less predictable over the measured period.

	Mean Deviation	1.5
	Standard Deviation	2.04
	Variance	4.17

Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Vulcan Materials Short Properties

Short sentiment tied to Vulcan Materials matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.

	Common Stock Shares Outstanding	131.94 million
	Cash And Short Term Investments	183.3 million

	Naive Prediction
	Simple Exponential Smoothing
	Double Exponential Smoothing
	Triple Exponential Smoothing
	Simple Regression
	Polynomial Regression
	Simple Moving Average
	4 Period Moving Average
	8 Period Moving Average
	20 Period Moving Average