Vinacontrol Group Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

VNC Stock   39,500  100.00  0.25%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Vinacontrol Group Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 40,161 with a mean absolute deviation of 538.50 and the sum of the absolute errors of 32,849. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast Vinacontrol Group's stock prices and determine the direction of Vinacontrol Group Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Vinacontrol Group's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Check out World Market Map to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors.
  
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Vinacontrol Group price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Vinacontrol Group Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 2nd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Vinacontrol Group Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 40,161 with a mean absolute deviation of 538.50, mean absolute percentage error of 445,221, and the sum of the absolute errors of 32,849.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Vinacontrol Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Vinacontrol Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Vinacontrol Group Stock Forecast Pattern

Vinacontrol Group Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Vinacontrol Group's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Vinacontrol Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 40,160 and 40,162, respectively. We have considered Vinacontrol Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
39,500
40,160
Downside
40,161
Expected Value
40,162
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Vinacontrol Group stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Vinacontrol Group stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria131.1168
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation538.5013
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0133
SAESum of the absolute errors32848.5792
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Vinacontrol Group Corp historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Vinacontrol Group

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vinacontrol Group Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Other Forecasting Options for Vinacontrol Group

For every potential investor in Vinacontrol, whether a beginner or expert, Vinacontrol Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Vinacontrol Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Vinacontrol. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Vinacontrol Group's price trends.

Vinacontrol Group Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Vinacontrol Group stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Vinacontrol Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Vinacontrol Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Vinacontrol Group Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Vinacontrol Group's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Vinacontrol Group's current price.

Vinacontrol Group Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Vinacontrol Group stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Vinacontrol Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Vinacontrol Group stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Vinacontrol Group Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Vinacontrol Group Risk Indicators

The analysis of Vinacontrol Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Vinacontrol Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting vinacontrol stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Vinacontrol Group

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Vinacontrol Group position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Vinacontrol Group will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Vinacontrol Group could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Vinacontrol Group when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Vinacontrol Group - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Vinacontrol Group Corp to buy it.
The correlation of Vinacontrol Group is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Vinacontrol Group moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Vinacontrol Group Corp moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Vinacontrol Group can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching