Veranda Resort Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing

VRANDA Stock   4.46  0.04  0.89%   
Veranda Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Veranda Resort stock prices and determine the direction of Veranda Resort Public's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Veranda Resort's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of now, The value of RSI of Veranda Resort's share price is at 53. This entails that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Veranda Resort, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 53

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Veranda Resort's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Veranda Resort Public, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Veranda Resort hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Veranda Resort Public from the perspective of Veranda Resort response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Veranda Resort Public on the next trading day is expected to be 4.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.36.

Veranda Resort after-hype prediction price

    
  THB 4.46  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Veranda Resort to cross-verify your projections.

Veranda Resort Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Veranda price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Veranda using various technical indicators. When you analyze Veranda charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Veranda Resort works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Veranda Resort Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 5th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Veranda Resort Public on the next trading day is expected to be 4.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0008, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.36.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Veranda Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Veranda Resort's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Veranda Resort Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Veranda Resort  Veranda Resort Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Veranda Resort Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Veranda Resort's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Veranda Resort's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.81 and 5.12, respectively. We have considered Veranda Resort's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
4.46
4.46
Expected Value
5.12
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Veranda Resort stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Veranda Resort stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0049
MADMean absolute deviation0.0227
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0051
SAESum of the absolute errors1.363
When Veranda Resort Public prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Veranda Resort Public trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Veranda Resort observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Veranda Resort

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Veranda Resort Public. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Veranda Resort's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
3.814.465.11
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
3.794.445.09
Details

Veranda Resort After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Veranda Resort at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Veranda Resort or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Veranda Resort, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Veranda Resort Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Veranda Resort's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Veranda Resort's historical news coverage. Veranda Resort's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 3.81 and 5.11, respectively. We have considered Veranda Resort's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
4.46
4.46
After-hype Price
5.11
Upside
Veranda Resort is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Veranda Resort Public is based on 3 months time horizon.

Veranda Resort Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Veranda Resort is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Veranda Resort backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Veranda Resort, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.01 
0.66
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
Any time
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
4.46
4.46
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Veranda Resort Hype Timeline

Veranda Resort Public is at this time traded for 4.46on Thailand Exchange of Thailand. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Veranda is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on Veranda Resort is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.46. About 69.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 1.2. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. Veranda Resort Public recorded a loss per share of 0.3. The entity last dividend was issued on the 30th of April 2021. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be any time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Veranda Resort to cross-verify your projections.

Veranda Resort Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Veranda Resort's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Veranda Resort's future price movements. Getting to know how Veranda Resort's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Veranda Resort may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
BROCKBaan Rock Garden 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.08) 4.92 (4.84) 14.07 
NVDNirvana Daii Public 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.06) 3.90 (5.88) 17.39 
PRIPrimo Service Solutions 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.17) 1.90 (1.86) 6.33 
ESTAREastern Star Real 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.03) 5.56 (5.00) 20.00 
PRINPrinsiri Public 0.00 0 per month 2.08 (0.01) 4.67 (5.03) 24.83 
KWCKrungdhep Sophon Public 0.00 0 per month 1.28 (0.01) 2.56 (3.21) 12.17 
MDXMDX Public 0.00 0 per month 1.36  0.0008  1.68 (2.52) 13.83 
SRIPANWASri panwa Hospitality 0.00 0 per month 0.64 (0.02) 1.67 (1.24) 4.12 
SPRIMES Prime Growth 0.00 0 per month 0.35  0.04  1.18 (1.14) 4.06 
ANANAnanda Development Public 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.06) 2.44 (2.44) 34.58 

Other Forecasting Options for Veranda Resort

For every potential investor in Veranda, whether a beginner or expert, Veranda Resort's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Veranda Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Veranda. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Veranda Resort's price trends.

Veranda Resort Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Veranda Resort stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Veranda Resort could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Veranda Resort by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Veranda Resort Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Veranda Resort stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Veranda Resort shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Veranda Resort stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Veranda Resort Public entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Veranda Resort Risk Indicators

The analysis of Veranda Resort's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Veranda Resort's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting veranda stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Veranda Resort

The number of cover stories for Veranda Resort depends on current market conditions and Veranda Resort's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Veranda Resort is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Veranda Resort's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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Other Information on Investing in Veranda Stock

Veranda Resort financial ratios help investors to determine whether Veranda Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Veranda with respect to the benefits of owning Veranda Resort security.