Virax Biolabs Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| VRAX Stock | USD 0.28 0 1.07% |
Virax Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the RSI of Virax Biolabs' share price is approaching 40. This entails that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Virax Biolabs, making its price go up or down. Momentum 40
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Current Year (1.01) | Wall Street Target Price 3 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.34) | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.68) |
Using Virax Biolabs hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Virax Biolabs Group from the perspective of Virax Biolabs response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Virax Biolabs Group on the next trading day is expected to be 0.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.60. Virax Biolabs after-hype prediction price | USD 0.28 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Virax Biolabs to cross-verify your projections. Virax Biolabs Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Virax price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Virax using various technical indicators. When you analyze Virax charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Virax Biolabs Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Virax Biolabs Group on the next trading day is expected to be 0.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.60.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Virax Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Virax Biolabs' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Virax Biolabs Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Virax Biolabs | Virax Biolabs Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Virax Biolabs Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Virax Biolabs' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Virax Biolabs' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0 and 11.61, respectively. We have considered Virax Biolabs' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Virax Biolabs stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Virax Biolabs stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 108.4716 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0056 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0271 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0615 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.5995 |
Predictive Modules for Virax Biolabs
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Virax Biolabs Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Virax Biolabs After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Virax Biolabs at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Virax Biolabs or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Virax Biolabs, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Virax Biolabs Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Virax Biolabs' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Virax Biolabs' historical news coverage. Virax Biolabs' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.01 and 11.61, respectively. We have considered Virax Biolabs' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Virax Biolabs is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Virax Biolabs Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
Virax Biolabs Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Virax Biolabs is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Virax Biolabs backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Virax Biolabs, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.47 | 11.33 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 7 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
0.28 | 0.28 | 1.06 |
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Virax Biolabs Hype Timeline
Virax Biolabs Group is at this time traded for 0.28. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.03. Virax is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 0.28. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -1.06%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.47%. The volatility of related hype on Virax Biolabs is about 15520.55%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.31. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 0.39. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. Virax Biolabs Group recorded a loss per share of 1.22. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 1:10 split on the 18th of December 2023. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Virax Biolabs to cross-verify your projections.Virax Biolabs Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Virax Biolabs' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Virax Biolabs' future price movements. Getting to know how Virax Biolabs' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Virax Biolabs may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| WINT | Windtree Therapeutics | 0.64 | 31 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 16.67 | (20.00) | 58.33 | |
| NCEL | NewcelX | (0.43) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 10.12 | (16.96) | 39.40 | |
| MLEC | Moolec Science SA | 0.17 | 8 per month | 10.43 | 0.03 | 15.63 | (16.33) | 152.55 | |
| DRMA | Dermata Therapeutics | (0.15) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 16.18 | (16.23) | 58.17 | |
| GTBP | GT Biopharma | (0.07) | 8 per month | 6.76 | 0.02 | 10.84 | (10.45) | 51.03 | |
| ATXI | Avenue Therapeutics | (0.07) | 19 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 12.66 | (20.69) | 50.24 | |
| NKGN | NKGen Biotech Common | 0.17 | 21 per month | 0.00 | 0.21 | 20.00 | (6.00) | 68.90 | |
| ARTL | Artelo Biosciences | (0.16) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 7.86 | (11.25) | 43.34 | |
| XRTX | XORTX Therapeutics | (0.01) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 7.02 | (5.77) | 17.42 | |
| ELAB | Elevai Labs Common | 0.64 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.38) | 5.71 | (14.29) | 38.62 |
Other Forecasting Options for Virax Biolabs
For every potential investor in Virax, whether a beginner or expert, Virax Biolabs' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Virax Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Virax. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Virax Biolabs' price trends.Virax Biolabs Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Virax Biolabs stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Virax Biolabs could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Virax Biolabs by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Virax Biolabs Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Virax Biolabs stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Virax Biolabs shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Virax Biolabs stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Virax Biolabs Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Virax Biolabs Risk Indicators
The analysis of Virax Biolabs' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Virax Biolabs' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting virax stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 5.28 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 11.02 | |||
| Variance | 121.36 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Virax Biolabs
The number of cover stories for Virax Biolabs depends on current market conditions and Virax Biolabs' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Virax Biolabs is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Virax Biolabs' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Virax Biolabs Short Properties
Virax Biolabs' future price predictability will typically decrease when Virax Biolabs' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Virax Biolabs Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Virax Biolabs' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Virax Biolabs' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.2 M |
Additional Tools for Virax Stock Analysis
When running Virax Biolabs' price analysis, check to measure Virax Biolabs' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Virax Biolabs is operating at the current time. Most of Virax Biolabs' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Virax Biolabs' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Virax Biolabs' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Virax Biolabs to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.