VR Factory Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| VRF Stock | 0.22 0.02 10.00% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of VR Factory Games on the next trading day is expected to be 0.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.31. VRF Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of today the value of rsi of VR Factory's share price is below 20 . This entails that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using VR Factory hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of VR Factory Games from the perspective of VR Factory response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of VR Factory Games on the next trading day is expected to be 0.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.31. VR Factory after-hype prediction price | PLN 0.22 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
VRF |
VR Factory Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine VRF price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for VRF using various technical indicators. When you analyze VRF charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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VR Factory Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of VR Factory Games on the next trading day is expected to be 0.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.000075, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.31.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict VRF Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that VR Factory's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
VR Factory Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest VR Factory | VR Factory Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
VR Factory Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting VR Factory's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. VR Factory's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0 and 4.38, respectively. We have considered VR Factory's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of VR Factory stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent VR Factory stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 106.7746 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 5.0E-4 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0052 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0243 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.31 |
Predictive Modules for VR Factory
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as VR Factory Games. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of VR Factory's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
VR Factory After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of VR Factory at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in VR Factory or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of VR Factory, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
VR Factory Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting VR Factory's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on VR Factory's historical news coverage. VR Factory's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.01 and 4.38, respectively. We have considered VR Factory's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
VR Factory is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of VR Factory Games is based on 3 months time horizon.
VR Factory Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as VR Factory is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading VR Factory backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with VR Factory, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.13 | 4.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Any time |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
0.22 | 0.22 | 0.00 |
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VR Factory Hype Timeline
VR Factory Games is at this time traded for 0.22on Warsaw Stock Exchange of Poland. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. VRF is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.13%. %. The volatility of related hype on VR Factory is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.22. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be any time. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of VR Factory to cross-verify your projections.VR Factory Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to VR Factory's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict VR Factory's future price movements. Getting to know how VR Factory's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how VR Factory may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GIF | Gaming Factory SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 4.50 | (3.76) | 13.56 | |
| 3RG | 3R Games SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 4.76 | (4.35) | 14.62 | |
| CFS | Centrum Finansowe Banku | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.13 | 0.07 | 2.49 | (2.44) | 17.21 | |
| MBK | mBank SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.45 | 0.02 | 3.47 | (2.54) | 8.96 | |
| DGE | Drago entertainment SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 7.66 | (8.09) | 27.20 | |
| VRF | VR Factory Games | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 5.88 | (5.56) | 20.83 | |
| CRM | PZ Cormay SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 5.26 | (2.78) | 15.59 | |
| SPL | Santander Bank Polska | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.48 | 0.05 | 2.90 | (2.36) | 9.54 |
Other Forecasting Options for VR Factory
For every potential investor in VRF, whether a beginner or expert, VR Factory's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. VRF Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in VRF. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying VR Factory's price trends.VR Factory Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with VR Factory stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of VR Factory could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing VR Factory by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
VR Factory Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how VR Factory stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading VR Factory shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying VR Factory stock market strength indicators, traders can identify VR Factory Games entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
VR Factory Risk Indicators
The analysis of VR Factory's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in VR Factory's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting vrf stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.58 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.1 | |||
| Variance | 16.82 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for VR Factory
The number of cover stories for VR Factory depends on current market conditions and VR Factory's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that VR Factory is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about VR Factory's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for VRF Stock Analysis
When running VR Factory's price analysis, check to measure VR Factory's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy VR Factory is operating at the current time. Most of VR Factory's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of VR Factory's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move VR Factory's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of VR Factory to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.