TCTM Kids Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

VSA Stock   2.34  0.13  5.26%   
TCTM Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast TCTM Kids stock prices and determine the direction of TCTM Kids IT's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of TCTM Kids' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of TCTM Kids' share price is below 20 . This entails that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 19

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of TCTM Kids' future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with TCTM Kids IT, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting TCTM Kids' stock price prediction:
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.84)
Using TCTM Kids hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of TCTM Kids IT from the perspective of TCTM Kids response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of TCTM Kids IT on the next trading day is expected to be -14.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 9.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 551.28.

TCTM Kids after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 2.34  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of TCTM Kids to cross-verify your projections.

TCTM Kids Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine TCTM price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for TCTM using various technical indicators. When you analyze TCTM charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
TCTM Kids polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for TCTM Kids IT as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

TCTM Kids Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 30th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of TCTM Kids IT on the next trading day is expected to be -14.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 9.04, mean absolute percentage error of 149.22, and the sum of the absolute errors of 551.28.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict TCTM Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that TCTM Kids' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

TCTM Kids Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest TCTM Kids  TCTM Kids Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

TCTM Kids Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting TCTM Kids' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. TCTM Kids' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 1.84, respectively. We have considered TCTM Kids' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
2.34
-14.27
Expected Value
1.84
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of TCTM Kids stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent TCTM Kids stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria123.1159
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation9.0374
MAPEMean absolute percentage error1.5194
SAESum of the absolute errors551.2841
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the TCTM Kids historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for TCTM Kids

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as TCTM Kids IT. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of TCTM Kids' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.122.3418.36
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.112.2518.27
Details

TCTM Kids After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of TCTM Kids at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in TCTM Kids or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of TCTM Kids, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

TCTM Kids Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting TCTM Kids' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on TCTM Kids' historical news coverage. TCTM Kids' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.12 and 18.36, respectively. We have considered TCTM Kids' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
2.34
2.34
After-hype Price
18.36
Upside
TCTM Kids is abnormally volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of TCTM Kids IT is based on 3 months time horizon.

TCTM Kids Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as TCTM Kids is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading TCTM Kids backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with TCTM Kids, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  4.33 
16.11
  1.08 
  2.47 
8 Events / Month
8 Events / Month
In about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
2.34
2.34
0.00 
6,444  
Notes

TCTM Kids Hype Timeline

On the 29th of January TCTM Kids IT is traded for 2.34. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -1.08, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 2.47. TCTM is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -4.33%. %. The volatility of related hype on TCTM Kids is about 2821.37%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.81. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 1.43. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. TCTM Kids IT recorded a loss per share of 6.56. The entity last dividend was issued on the 4th of April 2018. The firm had 1:5 split on the 23rd of December 2021. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 8 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of TCTM Kids to cross-verify your projections.

TCTM Kids Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to TCTM Kids' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict TCTM Kids' future price movements. Getting to know how TCTM Kids' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how TCTM Kids may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
CHGGChegg Inc 5.00 17 per month 0.00 (0.10) 8.79 (11.32) 38.40 
SKILSkillsoft Corp 0.97 5 per month 0.00 (0.08) 13.00 (14.16) 39.40 
YOULYoulife Group American(0.07)7 per month 8.16  0.02  11.50 (12.43) 82.82 
LGCYLegacy Education 0.83 9 per month 3.25  0.01  6.29 (5.41) 22.37 
HAINThe Hain Celestial(0.30)19 per month 0.00 (0.05) 9.40 (7.14) 19.76 
STGSunlands Technology Group(0.18)9 per month 0.00 (0.09) 6.03 (7.69) 34.54 
HFFGHf Foods Group 0.01 6 per month 0.00 (0.10) 4.65 (4.89) 16.37 
ISPRIspire Technology Common(0.12)5 per month 5.92  0.08  9.92 (9.41) 29.95 
GNSGenius Group 0.06 10 per month 0.00 (0.14) 8.11 (7.50) 24.04 
ACUAcme United(0.49)6 per month 1.32  0.02  3.87 (2.42) 9.49 

Other Forecasting Options for TCTM Kids

For every potential investor in TCTM, whether a beginner or expert, TCTM Kids' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. TCTM Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in TCTM. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying TCTM Kids' price trends.

TCTM Kids Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with TCTM Kids stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of TCTM Kids could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing TCTM Kids by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

TCTM Kids Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how TCTM Kids stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading TCTM Kids shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying TCTM Kids stock market strength indicators, traders can identify TCTM Kids IT entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

TCTM Kids Risk Indicators

The analysis of TCTM Kids' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in TCTM Kids' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting tctm stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for TCTM Kids

The number of cover stories for TCTM Kids depends on current market conditions and TCTM Kids' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that TCTM Kids is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about TCTM Kids' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

TCTM Kids Short Properties

TCTM Kids' future price predictability will typically decrease when TCTM Kids' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of TCTM Kids IT often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential TCTM Kids' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. TCTM Kids' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding11.1 M
Cash And Short Term Investments15.3 M
When determining whether TCTM Kids IT offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of TCTM Kids' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Tctm Kids It Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Tctm Kids It Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of TCTM Kids to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the AI Portfolio Prophet module to use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities.
Is Diversified Consumer Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of TCTM Kids. If investors know TCTM will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive TCTM Kids assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Earnings Share
(6.56)
Revenue Per Share
41.986
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.84)
Return On Assets
(0.22)
Investors evaluate TCTM Kids IT using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating TCTM Kids' intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause TCTM Kids' market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between TCTM Kids' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if TCTM Kids is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Conversely, TCTM Kids' market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.