Bristow Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| VTOL Stock | USD 43.75 1.88 4.49% |
Bristow Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of Bristow's stock price is about 66. This entails that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of now. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Bristow, making its price go up or down. Momentum 66
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Bristow hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Bristow Group from the perspective of Bristow response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bristow Group on the next trading day is expected to be 43.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.65 and the sum of the absolute errors of 38.79. Bristow after-hype prediction price | USD 43.75 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bristow to cross-verify your projections. Bristow Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Bristow price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Bristow using various technical indicators. When you analyze Bristow charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Bristow Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bristow Group on the next trading day is expected to be 43.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.65, mean absolute percentage error of 0.73, and the sum of the absolute errors of 38.79.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bristow Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bristow's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Bristow Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Bristow | Bristow Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Bristow Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Bristow's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bristow's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 41.59 and 45.91, respectively. We have considered Bristow's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bristow stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bristow stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.9635 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0882 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6465 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0167 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 38.79 |
Predictive Modules for Bristow
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bristow Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Bristow After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Bristow at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Bristow or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Bristow, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Bristow Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Bristow's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Bristow's historical news coverage. Bristow's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 41.59 and 45.91, respectively. We have considered Bristow's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Bristow is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Bristow Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
Bristow Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Bristow is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Bristow backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Bristow, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.23 | 2.16 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 15 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 15 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
43.75 | 43.75 | 0.00 |
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Bristow Hype Timeline
Bristow Group is at this time traded for 43.75. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.07, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Bristow is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.23%. %. The volatility of related hype on Bristow is about 4595.74%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 43.76. About 97.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 1.17. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. Bristow Group has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.01. The entity last dividend was issued on the 12th of June 2020. The firm had 1:2 split on the 12th of June 2020. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 15 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bristow to cross-verify your projections.Bristow Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Bristow's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Bristow's future price movements. Getting to know how Bristow's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Bristow may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NESR | National Energy Services | (0.15) | 6 per month | 1.64 | 0.27 | 7.21 | (2.98) | 22.01 | |
| RES | RPC Inc | 0.02 | 9 per month | 1.69 | 0.19 | 4.77 | (2.96) | 18.92 | |
| INVX | Innovex International | 0.32 | 3 per month | 1.66 | 0.11 | 4.39 | (2.95) | 12.82 | |
| VET | Vermilion Energy | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.16 | 0.12 | 4.96 | (3.39) | 13.03 | |
| NVGS | Navigator Holdings | (0.06) | 10 per month | 0.81 | 0.16 | 2.82 | (1.42) | 7.71 | |
| MRC | MRC Global | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.45) | 0.50 | (0.65) | 1.15 | |
| FLOC | Flowco Holdings | 0.29 | 24 per month | 2.03 | 0.12 | 4.18 | (3.32) | 23.77 | |
| LPG | Dorian LPG | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.08 | (0.02) | 2.42 | (2.53) | 10.53 | |
| PUMP | ProPetro Holding Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.82 | 0.11 | 6.75 | (6.58) | 60.13 | |
| TTI | Tetra Technologies | 0.05 | 9 per month | 2.63 | 0.19 | 6.35 | (4.75) | 15.22 |
Other Forecasting Options for Bristow
For every potential investor in Bristow, whether a beginner or expert, Bristow's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bristow Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bristow. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bristow's price trends.Bristow Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bristow stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bristow could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bristow by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Bristow Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bristow stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bristow shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bristow stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bristow Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Bristow Risk Indicators
The analysis of Bristow's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bristow's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bristow stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.61 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.06 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.16 | |||
| Variance | 4.65 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.21 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.26 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.69) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Bristow
The number of cover stories for Bristow depends on current market conditions and Bristow's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Bristow is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Bristow's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Bristow Short Properties
Bristow's future price predictability will typically decrease when Bristow's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Bristow Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Bristow's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Bristow's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 29.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 247.5 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bristow to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Idea Breakdown module to analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes.
Is Stock space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Bristow. If investors know Bristow will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Bristow listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Bristow Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Bristow that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Bristow's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Bristow's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Bristow's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Bristow's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Bristow's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Bristow is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Bristow's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.