Vanguard Utilities Mutual Fund Forecast - 8 Period Moving Average

VUIAX Fund  USD 88.55  0.24  0.27%   
The 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Vanguard Utilities Index on the next trading day is expected to be 87.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 73.54. Vanguard Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
An 8-period moving average forecast model for Vanguard Utilities is based on an artificially constructed time series of Vanguard Utilities daily prices in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 8 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

Vanguard Utilities 8 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 27th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Vanguard Utilities Index on the next trading day is expected to be 87.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.39, mean absolute percentage error of 2.45, and the sum of the absolute errors of 73.54.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Vanguard Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Vanguard Utilities' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Vanguard Utilities Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Vanguard Utilities Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Vanguard Utilities' Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Vanguard Utilities' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 86.62 and 88.56, respectively. We have considered Vanguard Utilities' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
88.55
87.59
Expected Value
88.56
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 8 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Vanguard Utilities mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Vanguard Utilities mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria104.3017
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.4513
MADMean absolute deviation1.3876
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0161
SAESum of the absolute errors73.5425
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. Vanguard Utilities Index 8-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for Vanguard Utilities

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vanguard Utilities Index. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
87.6388.6189.59
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
86.7687.7488.72
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Vanguard Utilities. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Vanguard Utilities' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Vanguard Utilities' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Vanguard Utilities Index.

Other Forecasting Options for Vanguard Utilities

For every potential investor in Vanguard, whether a beginner or expert, Vanguard Utilities' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Vanguard Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Vanguard. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Vanguard Utilities' price trends.

Vanguard Utilities Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Vanguard Utilities mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Vanguard Utilities could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Vanguard Utilities by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Vanguard Utilities Index Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Vanguard Utilities' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Vanguard Utilities' current price.

Vanguard Utilities Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Vanguard Utilities mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Vanguard Utilities shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Vanguard Utilities mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Vanguard Utilities Index entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Vanguard Utilities Risk Indicators

The analysis of Vanguard Utilities' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Vanguard Utilities' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting vanguard mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Vanguard Mutual Fund

Vanguard Utilities financial ratios help investors to determine whether Vanguard Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Vanguard with respect to the benefits of owning Vanguard Utilities security.
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