Viad Corp Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| VVI Stock | USD 44.33 1.06 2.45% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Viad Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 44.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.79 and the sum of the absolute errors of 47.62. Viad Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Viad Corp's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Viad |
Viad Corp Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Viad Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 44.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.79, mean absolute percentage error of 1.59, and the sum of the absolute errors of 47.62.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Viad Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Viad Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Viad Corp Stock Forecast Pattern
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Viad Corp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Viad Corp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Viad Corp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 41.07 and 47.59, respectively. We have considered Viad Corp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Viad Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Viad Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.7388 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1817 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7937 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0202 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 47.62 |
Predictive Modules for Viad Corp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Viad Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Viad Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Viad Corp
For every potential investor in Viad, whether a beginner or expert, Viad Corp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Viad Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Viad. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Viad Corp's price trends.View Viad Corp Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Viad Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Viad Corp's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Viad Corp's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Viad Corp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Viad Corp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Viad Corp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Viad Corp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Viad Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Viad Corp Risk Indicators
The analysis of Viad Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Viad Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting viad stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.06 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.6 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.23 | |||
| Variance | 10.42 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.77 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.55 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.58) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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When determining whether Viad Corp offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Viad Corp's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Viad Corp Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Viad Corp Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Viad Corp to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Viad Stock please use our How to Invest in Viad Corp guide.You can also try the Bollinger Bands module to use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.
Is Commercial Services & Supplies space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Viad Corp. If investors know Viad will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Viad Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.168 | Earnings Share 1.02 | Revenue Per Share 66.429 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.245 | Return On Assets 0.0629 |
The market value of Viad Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Viad that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Viad Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Viad Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Viad Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Viad Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Viad Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Viad Corp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Viad Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.