Roundhill Cannabis Etf Forecast - Naive Prediction
| WEED Etf | USD 20.50 0.74 3.74% |
Roundhill Etf outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Roundhill Cannabis stock prices and determine the direction of Roundhill Cannabis ETF's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Roundhill Cannabis' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, The relative strength momentum indicator of Roundhill Cannabis' share price is at 51. This entails that the etf is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Roundhill Cannabis, making its price go up or down. Momentum 51
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Roundhill Cannabis hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Roundhill Cannabis ETF from the perspective of Roundhill Cannabis response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Roundhill Cannabis using Roundhill Cannabis' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Roundhill using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Roundhill Cannabis' stock price.
Roundhill Cannabis Implied Volatility | 1.74 |
Roundhill Cannabis' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Roundhill Cannabis ETF stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Roundhill Cannabis' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Roundhill Cannabis stock will not fluctuate a lot when Roundhill Cannabis' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Roundhill Cannabis ETF on the next trading day is expected to be 23.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.50 and the sum of the absolute errors of 91.61. Roundhill Cannabis after-hype prediction price | USD 20.55 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Roundhill contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Roundhill Cannabis ETF will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.11% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Roundhill Cannabis trading at USD 20.5, that is roughly USD 0.0223 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Roundhill Cannabis' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Roundhill Cannabis ETF options at the current volatility level of 1.74%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Roundhill Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Roundhill Cannabis' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Roundhill Cannabis' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Roundhill Cannabis stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Roundhill Cannabis' open interest, investors have to compare it to Roundhill Cannabis' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Roundhill Cannabis is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Roundhill. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Roundhill Cannabis Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Roundhill price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Roundhill using various technical indicators. When you analyze Roundhill charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Roundhill Cannabis Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Roundhill Cannabis ETF on the next trading day is expected to be 23.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.50, mean absolute percentage error of 4.82, and the sum of the absolute errors of 91.61.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Roundhill Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Roundhill Cannabis' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Roundhill Cannabis Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Roundhill Cannabis | Roundhill Cannabis Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Roundhill Cannabis Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Roundhill Cannabis' Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Roundhill Cannabis' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.92 and 33.43, respectively. We have considered Roundhill Cannabis' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Roundhill Cannabis etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Roundhill Cannabis etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.6839 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.5018 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0765 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 91.6091 |
Predictive Modules for Roundhill Cannabis
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Roundhill Cannabis ETF. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Roundhill Cannabis' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Roundhill Cannabis After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Roundhill Cannabis at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Roundhill Cannabis or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of Roundhill Cannabis, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Roundhill Cannabis Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Roundhill Cannabis' etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Roundhill Cannabis' historical news coverage. Roundhill Cannabis' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.80 and 30.30, respectively. We have considered Roundhill Cannabis' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Roundhill Cannabis is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Roundhill Cannabis ETF is based on 3 months time horizon.
Roundhill Cannabis Etf Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as Roundhill Cannabis is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Roundhill Cannabis backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Roundhill Cannabis, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.52 | 9.75 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 6 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
20.50 | 20.55 | 0.24 |
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Roundhill Cannabis Hype Timeline
Roundhill Cannabis ETF is at this time traded for 20.50. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.07. Roundhill is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 20.55 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is anticipated to be 0.24%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.52%. The volatility of related hype on Roundhill Cannabis is about 7014.39%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 20.43. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Roundhill Cannabis to cross-verify your projections.Roundhill Cannabis Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Roundhill Cannabis' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Roundhill Cannabis' future price movements. Getting to know how Roundhill Cannabis' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Roundhill Cannabis may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HAUS | Tidal ETF Trust | (0.49) | 3 per month | 0.74 | (0.01) | 1.48 | (1.15) | 3.83 | |
| MKAM | MKAM ETF | (0.07) | 1 per month | 0.49 | (0.11) | 0.66 | (0.80) | 2.21 | |
| LRND | IQ Large Cap | (0.04) | 2 per month | 1.01 | (0.06) | 1.17 | (1.73) | 4.94 | |
| BGRO | BlackRock Large Cap | (0.28) | 2 per month | 1.36 | (0.06) | 1.82 | (2.22) | 5.38 | |
| YFFI | Spinnaker ETF Series | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.28 | (0.25) | 0.40 | (0.49) | 1.37 | |
| UPV | ProShares Ultra FTSE | (0.41) | 3 per month | 1.17 | 0.10 | 2.39 | (2.28) | 6.15 | |
| EBIT | Harbor ETF Trust | (0.21) | 9 per month | 0.76 | 0.04 | 2.22 | (1.60) | 4.73 | |
| WAR | ETF Series Solutions | 0.08 | 3 per month | 1.28 | 0.09 | 2.29 | (2.70) | 6.06 | |
| JHDV | John Hancock Exchange | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.80 | (0.03) | 0.99 | (1.28) | 3.02 | |
| SEA | US Global Sea | 0.03 | 9 per month | 0.70 | 0.09 | 1.27 | (1.46) | 4.00 |
Other Forecasting Options for Roundhill Cannabis
For every potential investor in Roundhill, whether a beginner or expert, Roundhill Cannabis' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Roundhill Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Roundhill. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Roundhill Cannabis' price trends.Roundhill Cannabis Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Roundhill Cannabis etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Roundhill Cannabis could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Roundhill Cannabis by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Roundhill Cannabis Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Roundhill Cannabis etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Roundhill Cannabis shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Roundhill Cannabis etf market strength indicators, traders can identify Roundhill Cannabis ETF entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Roundhill Cannabis Risk Indicators
The analysis of Roundhill Cannabis' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Roundhill Cannabis' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting roundhill etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 5.34 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 6.42 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 9.45 | |||
| Variance | 89.37 | |||
| Downside Variance | 47.88 | |||
| Semi Variance | 41.22 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (6.02) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Roundhill Cannabis
The number of cover stories for Roundhill Cannabis depends on current market conditions and Roundhill Cannabis' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Roundhill Cannabis is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Roundhill Cannabis' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Roundhill Cannabis to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Pair Correlation module to compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments.
The market value of Roundhill Cannabis ETF is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Roundhill that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Roundhill Cannabis' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Roundhill Cannabis' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Roundhill Cannabis' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Roundhill Cannabis' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Roundhill Cannabis' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Roundhill Cannabis is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Roundhill Cannabis' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.