Walthausen Small Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

WFICX Fund  USD 15.68  0.02  0.13%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Walthausen Small Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 15.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.45. Walthausen Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Walthausen Small's share price is above 70 at this time. This entails that the mutual fund is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Walthausen, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 74

 Buy Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Walthausen Small's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Walthausen Small Cap, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Walthausen Small hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Walthausen Small Cap from the perspective of Walthausen Small response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Walthausen Small Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 15.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.45.

Walthausen Small after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 15.68  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Walthausen Small to cross-verify your projections.

Walthausen Small Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Walthausen price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Walthausen using various technical indicators. When you analyze Walthausen charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Walthausen Small simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Walthausen Small Cap are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Walthausen Small Cap prices get older.

Walthausen Small Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 19th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Walthausen Small Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 15.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.45.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Walthausen Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Walthausen Small's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Walthausen Small Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Walthausen SmallWalthausen Small Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Walthausen Small Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Walthausen Small's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Walthausen Small's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.61 and 17.75, respectively. We have considered Walthausen Small's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
15.68
15.68
Expected Value
17.75
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Walthausen Small mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Walthausen Small mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.6802
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0602
MADMean absolute deviation0.1408
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0104
SAESum of the absolute errors8.45
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Walthausen Small Cap forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Walthausen Small observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Walthausen Small

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Walthausen Small Cap. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Walthausen Small's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
13.6115.6817.75
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
14.4216.4918.56
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
14.3115.0615.81
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Walthausen Small

For every potential investor in Walthausen, whether a beginner or expert, Walthausen Small's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Walthausen Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Walthausen. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Walthausen Small's price trends.

Walthausen Small Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Walthausen Small mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Walthausen Small could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Walthausen Small by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Walthausen Small Cap Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Walthausen Small's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Walthausen Small's current price.

Walthausen Small Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Walthausen Small mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Walthausen Small shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Walthausen Small mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Walthausen Small Cap entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Walthausen Small Risk Indicators

The analysis of Walthausen Small's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Walthausen Small's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting walthausen mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Walthausen Mutual Fund

Walthausen Small financial ratios help investors to determine whether Walthausen Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Walthausen with respect to the benefits of owning Walthausen Small security.
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