Wilshire 5000 Mutual Fund Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Wilshire 5000 works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Wilshire 5000 Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Wilshire 5000 Index on the next trading day is expected to be 34.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.31.

Wilshire 5000 Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Wilshire 5000 Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Wilshire 5000 mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Wilshire 5000 mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. When Wilshire 5000 Index prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Wilshire 5000 Index trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Wilshire 5000 observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Wilshire 5000

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Wilshire 5000 Index. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 33.63 34.41 35.19 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 33.21 33.99 34.77 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 34.19 34.35 34.51 Details

Other Forecasting Options for Wilshire 5000

For every potential investor in Wilshire, whether a beginner or expert, Wilshire 5000's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Wilshire Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Wilshire. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Wilshire 5000's price trends.

Wilshire 5000 Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

Wilshire 5000 Index Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Wilshire 5000's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Wilshire 5000's current price.

Wilshire 5000 Market Strength Events

Wilshire 5000 Risk Indicators

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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

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