WLM Participaes Preferred Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| WLMM4 Preferred Stock | BRL 21.65 0.98 4.74% |
WLM Preferred Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of WLM Participaes' preferred stock price is slightly above 60. This entails that the preferred stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling WLM, making its price go up or down. Momentum 60
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using WLM Participaes hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of WLM Participaes e from the perspective of WLM Participaes response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of WLM Participaes e on the next trading day is expected to be 21.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.21. WLM Participaes after-hype prediction price | BRL 21.65 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as preferred stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
WLM |
WLM Participaes Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine WLM price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for WLM using various technical indicators. When you analyze WLM charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
WLM Participaes Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of WLM Participaes e on the next trading day is expected to be 21.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41, mean absolute percentage error of 0.30, and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.21.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict WLM Preferred Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that WLM Participaes' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
WLM Participaes Preferred Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest WLM Participaes | WLM Participaes Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
WLM Participaes Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting WLM Participaes' Preferred Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. WLM Participaes' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 19.45 and 24.27, respectively. We have considered WLM Participaes' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of WLM Participaes preferred stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent WLM Participaes preferred stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.071 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4104 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0213 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 24.2122 |
Predictive Modules for WLM Participaes
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as WLM Participaes e. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the preferred stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the preferred stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.WLM Participaes After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of WLM Participaes at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in WLM Participaes or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Preferred Stock prices, such as prices of WLM Participaes, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
WLM Participaes Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting WLM Participaes' preferred stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on WLM Participaes' historical news coverage. WLM Participaes' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 19.24 and 24.06, respectively. We have considered WLM Participaes' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
WLM Participaes is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of WLM Participaes e is based on 3 months time horizon.
WLM Participaes Preferred Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as WLM Participaes is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading WLM Participaes backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Preferred Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with WLM Participaes, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.45 | 2.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Any time |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
21.65 | 21.65 | 0.00 |
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WLM Participaes Hype Timeline
WLM Participaes e is at this time traded for 21.65on Sao Paulo Exchange of Brazil. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. WLM is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.45%. %. The volatility of related hype on WLM Participaes is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 21.65. About 76.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 1.29. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. WLM Participaes e last dividend was issued on the 9th of January 2023. The entity had 5:1 split on the 18th of September 2015. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be any time. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of WLM Participaes to cross-verify your projections.WLM Participaes Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to WLM Participaes' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict WLM Participaes' future price movements. Getting to know how WLM Participaes' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how WLM Participaes may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CGRA3 | Grazziotin SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 10.01 | 0.09 | 39.07 | (26.94) | 69.32 | |
| CGRA4 | Grazziotin SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.62 | 0.1 | 3.45 | (1.79) | 27.91 | |
| AMOB3 | AUTOMOB PARTICIPACOES SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.66 | 0.03 | 4.32 | (3.75) | 16.85 | |
| AMAR3 | Marisa Lojas SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 1.94 | (2.52) | 6.82 | |
| SHUL4 | Schulz SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.35 | 0.18 | 3.61 | (2.37) | 9.13 | |
| CAMB3 | Cambuci SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.41 | 0.03 | 2.94 | (2.33) | 7.35 | |
| RSUL4 | Metalrgica Riosulense SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.85 | (3.53) | 12.20 | |
| CVCB3 | CVC Brasil Operadora | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.48 | 0.14 | 6.86 | (7.11) | 27.01 | |
| PTNT4 | Pettenati SA Industria | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.68 | 0.11 | 4.65 | (3.61) | 71.15 | |
| LJQQ3 | Lojas Quero Quero SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.78 | 0.07 | 5.61 | (5.36) | 15.71 |
Other Forecasting Options for WLM Participaes
For every potential investor in WLM, whether a beginner or expert, WLM Participaes' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. WLM Preferred Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in WLM. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying WLM Participaes' price trends.WLM Participaes Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with WLM Participaes preferred stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of WLM Participaes could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing WLM Participaes by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
WLM Participaes Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how WLM Participaes preferred stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading WLM Participaes shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying WLM Participaes preferred stock market strength indicators, traders can identify WLM Participaes e entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
WLM Participaes Risk Indicators
The analysis of WLM Participaes' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in WLM Participaes' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting wlm preferred stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.7 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.0 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.45 | |||
| Variance | 5.98 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.73 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.02 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.10) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for WLM Participaes
The number of cover stories for WLM Participaes depends on current market conditions and WLM Participaes' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that WLM Participaes is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about WLM Participaes' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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WLM Participaes Short Properties
WLM Participaes' future price predictability will typically decrease when WLM Participaes' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of WLM Participaes e often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential WLM Participaes' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. WLM Participaes' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 36.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 158.1 M |
Additional Tools for WLM Preferred Stock Analysis
When running WLM Participaes' price analysis, check to measure WLM Participaes' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy WLM Participaes is operating at the current time. Most of WLM Participaes' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of WLM Participaes' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move WLM Participaes' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of WLM Participaes to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.