Woolworths Holdings Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction
| WLWHY Stock | USD 3.91 0.02 0.51% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Woolworths Holdings Ltd on the next trading day is expected to be 3.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.12. Woolworths Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Woolworths Holdings' share price is below 20 . This entails that the pink sheet is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Woolworths Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Woolworths Holdings Ltd from the perspective of Woolworths Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Woolworths Holdings Ltd on the next trading day is expected to be 3.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.12. Woolworths Holdings after-hype prediction price | USD 3.91 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Woolworths |
Woolworths Holdings Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Woolworths price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Woolworths using various technical indicators. When you analyze Woolworths charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Woolworths Holdings Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Woolworths Holdings Ltd on the next trading day is expected to be 3.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.12.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Woolworths Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Woolworths Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Woolworths Holdings Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Woolworths Holdings | Woolworths Holdings Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Woolworths Holdings Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Woolworths Holdings' Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Woolworths Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.77 and 7.05, respectively. We have considered Woolworths Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Woolworths Holdings pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Woolworths Holdings pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.2659 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0676 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0201 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 4.1234 |
Predictive Modules for Woolworths Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Woolworths Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Woolworths Holdings After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Woolworths Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Woolworths Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Woolworths Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Woolworths Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Woolworths Holdings' pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Woolworths Holdings' historical news coverage. Woolworths Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.74 and 7.08, respectively. We have considered Woolworths Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Woolworths Holdings is unstable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Woolworths Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Woolworths Holdings Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Woolworths Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Woolworths Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Woolworths Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.45 | 3.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Any time |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
3.91 | 3.91 | 0.00 |
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Woolworths Holdings Hype Timeline
Woolworths Holdings is at this time traded for 3.91. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Woolworths is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.45%. %. The volatility of related hype on Woolworths Holdings is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.91. The company last dividend was issued on the 15th of September 2022. Woolworths Holdings had 10:1 split on the 10th of September 2014. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be any time. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Woolworths Holdings to cross-verify your projections.Woolworths Holdings Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Woolworths Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Woolworths Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how Woolworths Holdings' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Woolworths Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| JFROF | J Front Retailing | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| RYKKY | Ryohin Keikaku Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.27 | (0.01) | 4.77 | (4.48) | 19.24 | |
| SURRF | Sun Art Retail | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| STAEF | Stanley Electric Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 8.59 | 0.14 | 31.29 | (15.34) | 35.55 | |
| SURRY | Sun Art Retail | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.64 | (5.00) | 45.55 | |
| MNILY | Minor International PCL | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.33) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.05 | |
| SMSOF | Samsonite International SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.07 | 7.14 | 0.00 | 54.91 | |
| MAWHY | Man Wah Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.69 | 0.03 | 7.62 | (9.44) | 39.25 | |
| MRCIF | Mercari | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| MCARY | Mercari | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.12 | 0.09 | 6.82 | (4.49) | 21.81 |
Other Forecasting Options for Woolworths Holdings
For every potential investor in Woolworths, whether a beginner or expert, Woolworths Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Woolworths Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Woolworths. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Woolworths Holdings' price trends.Woolworths Holdings Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Woolworths Holdings pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Woolworths Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Woolworths Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Woolworths Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Woolworths Holdings pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Woolworths Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Woolworths Holdings pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Woolworths Holdings Ltd entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 3.91 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 3.91 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.01 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.02 |
Woolworths Holdings Risk Indicators
The analysis of Woolworths Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Woolworths Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting woolworths pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.27 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.59 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.15 | |||
| Variance | 9.91 | |||
| Downside Variance | 14.15 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.73 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.12) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Woolworths Holdings
The number of cover stories for Woolworths Holdings depends on current market conditions and Woolworths Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Woolworths Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Woolworths Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Woolworths Holdings Short Properties
Woolworths Holdings' future price predictability will typically decrease when Woolworths Holdings' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Woolworths Holdings Ltd often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Woolworths Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Woolworths Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 956.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 5.4 B |
Additional Tools for Woolworths Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Woolworths Holdings' price analysis, check to measure Woolworths Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Woolworths Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of Woolworths Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Woolworths Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Woolworths Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Woolworths Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.