John Wiley Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| WLYB Stock | USD 51.93 0.65 1.24% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of John Wiley Sons on the next trading day is expected to be 54.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.85 and the sum of the absolute errors of 114.95. John Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast John Wiley stock prices and determine the direction of John Wiley Sons's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of John Wiley's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
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John Wiley Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the John Wiley's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1986-04-30 | Previous Quarter 83.4 M | Current Value 82.5 M | Quarterly Volatility 97.2 M |
John Wiley Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of John Wiley Sons on the next trading day is expected to be 54.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.85, mean absolute percentage error of 30.81, and the sum of the absolute errors of 114.95.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict John Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that John Wiley's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
John Wiley Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest John Wiley | John Wiley Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of John Wiley stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent John Wiley stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 123.3762 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.8541 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 9.223372036854776E14 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 114.9548 |
Predictive Modules for John Wiley
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as John Wiley Sons. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of John Wiley's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
John Wiley Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with John Wiley stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of John Wiley could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing John Wiley by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
John Wiley Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how John Wiley stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading John Wiley shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying John Wiley stock market strength indicators, traders can identify John Wiley Sons entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
John Wiley Risk Indicators
The analysis of John Wiley's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in John Wiley's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting john stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.01 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.84 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.05 | |||
| Variance | 4.21 | |||
| Downside Variance | 8.95 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.37 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.31) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether John Wiley Sons offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of John Wiley's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of John Wiley Sons Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on John Wiley Sons Stock:Check out Your Current Watchlist to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in manufacturing. You can also try the Crypto Correlations module to use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins.
Is Movies & Entertainment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of John Wiley. If investors know John will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about John Wiley listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.63) | Dividend Share 1.403 | Earnings Share (2.01) | Revenue Per Share 33.365 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.10) |
The market value of John Wiley Sons is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of John that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of John Wiley's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is John Wiley's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because John Wiley's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect John Wiley's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between John Wiley's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if John Wiley is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, John Wiley's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.