Integra Indocabinet Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

WOOD Stock  IDR 338.00  12.00  3.43%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Integra Indocabinet Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 337.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.95 and the sum of the absolute errors of 357.18. Integra Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Integra Indocabinet simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Integra Indocabinet Tbk are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Integra Indocabinet Tbk prices get older.

Integra Indocabinet Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Integra Indocabinet Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 337.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.95, mean absolute percentage error of 124.39, and the sum of the absolute errors of 357.18.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Integra Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Integra Indocabinet's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Integra Indocabinet Stock Forecast Pattern

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Integra Indocabinet Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Integra Indocabinet's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Integra Indocabinet's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 333.96 and 341.96, respectively. We have considered Integra Indocabinet's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
338.00
333.96
Downside
337.96
Expected Value
341.96
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Integra Indocabinet stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Integra Indocabinet stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.096
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -2.2069
MADMean absolute deviation5.953
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.02
SAESum of the absolute errors357.1792
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Integra Indocabinet Tbk forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Integra Indocabinet observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Integra Indocabinet

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Integra Indocabinet Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
334.00338.00342.00
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
304.20369.13373.14
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
280.29311.17342.04
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Integra Indocabinet

For every potential investor in Integra, whether a beginner or expert, Integra Indocabinet's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Integra Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Integra. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Integra Indocabinet's price trends.

Integra Indocabinet Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Integra Indocabinet stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Integra Indocabinet could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Integra Indocabinet by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Integra Indocabinet Tbk Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Integra Indocabinet's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Integra Indocabinet's current price.

Integra Indocabinet Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Integra Indocabinet stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Integra Indocabinet shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Integra Indocabinet stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Integra Indocabinet Tbk entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Integra Indocabinet Risk Indicators

The analysis of Integra Indocabinet's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Integra Indocabinet's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting integra stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Integra Stock

Integra Indocabinet financial ratios help investors to determine whether Integra Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Integra with respect to the benefits of owning Integra Indocabinet security.