Winpak Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| WPK Stock | CAD 44.93 0.26 0.58% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Winpak on the next trading day is expected to be 44.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.38 and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.06. Winpak Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Winpak's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Winpak's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Winpak fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Winpak's share price is below 20 . This entails that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.03) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.6373 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.2665 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.4496 | Wall Street Target Price 48.2912 |
Using Winpak hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Winpak from the perspective of Winpak response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Winpak on the next trading day is expected to be 44.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.38 and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.06. Winpak after-hype prediction price | CAD 44.94 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Winpak |
Winpak Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Winpak price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Winpak using various technical indicators. When you analyze Winpak charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Winpak Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Winpak on the next trading day is expected to be 44.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.38, mean absolute percentage error of 0.23, and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.06.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Winpak Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Winpak's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Winpak Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Winpak | Winpak Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Winpak Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Winpak's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Winpak's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 43.83 and 46.04, respectively. We have considered Winpak's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Winpak stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Winpak stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.6211 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0176 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3781 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0086 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 23.0623 |
Predictive Modules for Winpak
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Winpak. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Winpak After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Winpak at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Winpak or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Winpak, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Winpak Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Winpak's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Winpak's historical news coverage. Winpak's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 43.84 and 46.04, respectively. We have considered Winpak's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Winpak is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Winpak is based on 3 months time horizon.
Winpak Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Winpak is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Winpak backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Winpak, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.04 | 1.10 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 8 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
44.93 | 44.94 | 0.02 |
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Winpak Hype Timeline
Winpak is at this time traded for 44.93on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.06. Winpak is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 44.94 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is estimated to be 0.02%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.04%. The volatility of related hype on Winpak is about 72.99%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 44.87. The company reported the revenue of 1.13 B. Net Income was 151.07 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 349.65 M. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Winpak to cross-verify your projections.Winpak Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Winpak's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Winpak's future price movements. Getting to know how Winpak's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Winpak may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PET | Pet Valu Holdings | 0.19 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 2.67 | (2.56) | 18.72 | |
| LNF | Leons Furniture Limited | 0.44 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 1.46 | (2.12) | 9.71 | |
| RCH | Richelieu Hardware | 0.01 | 7 per month | 0.80 | 0.11 | 2.59 | (1.55) | 6.13 | |
| TOY | Spin Master Corp | (16.52) | 7 per month | 1.91 | (0.04) | 3.13 | (2.97) | 14.65 | |
| CAS | Cascades | 0.22 | 3 per month | 1.04 | 0.08 | 2.67 | (1.69) | 9.50 | |
| GOOS | Canada Goose Holdings | 0.21 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.54 | (4.83) | 17.28 | |
| NFI | NFI Group | (0.07) | 8 per month | 1.40 | 0.08 | 3.74 | (2.02) | 16.03 | |
| IFX | Imaflex | 0.02 | 3 per month | 1.17 | 0.11 | 3.77 | (4.35) | 110.89 | |
| SXP | Supremex | 0.43 | 1 per month | 1.23 | (0) | 2.75 | (2.70) | 8.78 | |
| NEXE | NEXE Innovations | 0.00 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 8.33 | (7.69) | 36.26 |
Other Forecasting Options for Winpak
For every potential investor in Winpak, whether a beginner or expert, Winpak's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Winpak Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Winpak. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Winpak's price trends.Winpak Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Winpak stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Winpak could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Winpak by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Winpak Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Winpak stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Winpak shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Winpak stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Winpak entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 482.76 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.39) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 45.11 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 45.05 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.30) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.26) |
Winpak Risk Indicators
The analysis of Winpak's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Winpak's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting winpak stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9041 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9661 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.16 | |||
| Variance | 1.35 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.2 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.9333 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.03) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Winpak
The number of cover stories for Winpak depends on current market conditions and Winpak's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Winpak is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Winpak's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Winpak Short Properties
Winpak's future price predictability will typically decrease when Winpak's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Winpak often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Winpak's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Winpak's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 63 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 497.3 M |
Other Information on Investing in Winpak Stock
Winpak financial ratios help investors to determine whether Winpak Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Winpak with respect to the benefits of owning Winpak security.