Welsbach Technology Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| WTMA Stock | USD 11.26 0.01 0.09% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Welsbach Technology Metals on the next trading day is expected to be 11.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.81. Welsbach Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Welsbach Technology stock prices and determine the direction of Welsbach Technology Metals's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Welsbach Technology's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Welsbach |
Welsbach Technology Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Welsbach Technology's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2010-12-31 | Previous Quarter 6.8 K | Current Value 6.4 K | Quarterly Volatility 457.5 K |
Welsbach Technology Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Welsbach Technology Metals on the next trading day is expected to be 11.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0004, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.81.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Welsbach Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Welsbach Technology's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Welsbach Technology Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Welsbach Technology | Welsbach Technology Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Welsbach Technology Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Welsbach Technology's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Welsbach Technology's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.97 and 11.59, respectively. We have considered Welsbach Technology's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Welsbach Technology stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Welsbach Technology stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.1637 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0133 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0012 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.8135 |
Predictive Modules for Welsbach Technology
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Welsbach Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Welsbach Technology
For every potential investor in Welsbach, whether a beginner or expert, Welsbach Technology's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Welsbach Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Welsbach. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Welsbach Technology's price trends.Welsbach Technology Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Welsbach Technology stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Welsbach Technology could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Welsbach Technology by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Welsbach Technology Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Welsbach Technology's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Welsbach Technology's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Welsbach Technology Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Welsbach Technology stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Welsbach Technology shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Welsbach Technology stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Welsbach Technology Metals entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Welsbach Technology Risk Indicators
The analysis of Welsbach Technology's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Welsbach Technology's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting welsbach stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.1161 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.2279 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.3064 | |||
| Variance | 0.0939 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.7035 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.0519 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.56) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Welsbach Technology is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Welsbach Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Welsbach Technology Metals Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Welsbach Technology Metals Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Welsbach Technology to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Fundamental Analysis module to view fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements.
Is Asset Management & Custody Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Welsbach Technology. If investors know Welsbach will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Welsbach Technology listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.06) | Return On Assets (0.03) |
The market value of Welsbach Technology is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Welsbach that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Welsbach Technology's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Welsbach Technology's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Welsbach Technology's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Welsbach Technology's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Welsbach Technology's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Welsbach Technology is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Welsbach Technology's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.