Kinetics Internet Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

WWWFX Fund  USD 97.93  0.28  0.29%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Kinetics Internet Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 97.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.44 and the sum of the absolute errors of 87.86. Kinetics Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Kinetics Internet's share price is below 20 . This entails that the mutual fund is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Kinetics Internet's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Kinetics Internet Fund, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Kinetics Internet hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Kinetics Internet Fund from the perspective of Kinetics Internet response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Kinetics Internet Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 97.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.44 and the sum of the absolute errors of 87.86.

Kinetics Internet after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 83.85  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Kinetics Internet to cross-verify your projections.

Kinetics Internet Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Kinetics price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Kinetics using various technical indicators. When you analyze Kinetics charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Kinetics Internet simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Kinetics Internet Fund are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Kinetics Internet prices get older.

Kinetics Internet Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Kinetics Internet Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 97.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.44, mean absolute percentage error of 3.30, and the sum of the absolute errors of 87.86.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Kinetics Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Kinetics Internet's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Kinetics Internet Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Kinetics InternetKinetics Internet Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Kinetics Internet Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Kinetics Internet's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Kinetics Internet's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 96.10 and 99.76, respectively. We have considered Kinetics Internet's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
97.93
97.93
Expected Value
99.76
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Kinetics Internet mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Kinetics Internet mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.304
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.1734
MADMean absolute deviation1.4403
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0147
SAESum of the absolute errors87.86
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Kinetics Internet Fund forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Kinetics Internet observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Kinetics Internet

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Kinetics Internet. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
82.0283.85107.72
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
95.0496.8798.70
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
89.2294.96100.71
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Kinetics Internet. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Kinetics Internet's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Kinetics Internet's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Kinetics Internet.

Kinetics Internet After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Kinetics Internet at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Kinetics Internet or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Kinetics Internet, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Kinetics Internet Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Kinetics Internet's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Kinetics Internet's historical news coverage. Kinetics Internet's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 82.02 and 107.72, respectively. We have considered Kinetics Internet's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
97.93
83.85
After-hype Price
107.72
Upside
Kinetics Internet is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Kinetics Internet is based on 3 months time horizon.

Kinetics Internet Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Kinetics Internet is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Kinetics Internet backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Kinetics Internet, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.19 
1.83
  14.08 
  0.80 
1 Events / Month
1 Events / Month
Very soon
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
97.93
83.85
14.38 
2.47  
Notes

Kinetics Internet Hype Timeline

Kinetics Internet is at this time traded for 97.93. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -14.08, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.8. Kinetics is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 83.85. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 2.47%. The price reduction on the next news is expected to be -14.38%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.19%. The volatility of related hype on Kinetics Internet is about 43.59%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 97.13. The company last dividend was issued on the 30th of December 1970. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be very soon.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Kinetics Internet to cross-verify your projections.

Kinetics Internet Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Kinetics Internet's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Kinetics Internet's future price movements. Getting to know how Kinetics Internet's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Kinetics Internet may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Kinetics Internet

For every potential investor in Kinetics, whether a beginner or expert, Kinetics Internet's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Kinetics Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Kinetics. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Kinetics Internet's price trends.

Kinetics Internet Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Kinetics Internet mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Kinetics Internet could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Kinetics Internet by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Kinetics Internet Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Kinetics Internet mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Kinetics Internet shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Kinetics Internet mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Kinetics Internet Fund entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Kinetics Internet Risk Indicators

The analysis of Kinetics Internet's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Kinetics Internet's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting kinetics mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Kinetics Internet

The number of cover stories for Kinetics Internet depends on current market conditions and Kinetics Internet's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Kinetics Internet is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Kinetics Internet's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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Other Information on Investing in Kinetics Mutual Fund

Kinetics Internet financial ratios help investors to determine whether Kinetics Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Kinetics with respect to the benefits of owning Kinetics Internet security.
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