Xcel Brands Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| XELB Stock | USD 1.56 0.02 1.27% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Xcel Brands on the next trading day is expected to be 1.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.93. Xcel Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Xcel Brands stock prices and determine the direction of Xcel Brands's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Xcel Brands' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the value of rsi of Xcel Brands' share price is below 20 . This entails that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Xcel Brands hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Xcel Brands from the perspective of Xcel Brands response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Xcel Brands on the next trading day is expected to be 1.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.93. Xcel Brands after-hype prediction price | USD 1.53 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Xcel Brands to cross-verify your projections. Xcel Brands Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Xcel price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Xcel using various technical indicators. When you analyze Xcel charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Xcel Brands Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Xcel Brands on the next trading day is expected to be 1.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.93.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Xcel Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Xcel Brands' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Xcel Brands Stock Forecast Pattern
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Xcel Brands Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Xcel Brands' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Xcel Brands' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 7.69, respectively. We have considered Xcel Brands' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Xcel Brands stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Xcel Brands stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.4322 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.13 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.1203 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.9315 |
Predictive Modules for Xcel Brands
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Xcel Brands. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Xcel Brands After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Xcel Brands at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Xcel Brands or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Xcel Brands, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Xcel Brands Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Xcel Brands' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Xcel Brands' historical news coverage. Xcel Brands' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.08 and 7.93, respectively. We have considered Xcel Brands' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Xcel Brands is extremely dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Xcel Brands is based on 3 months time horizon.
Xcel Brands Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Xcel Brands is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Xcel Brands backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Xcel Brands, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.46 | 6.40 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 19 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 19 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
1.56 | 1.53 | 1.92 |
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Xcel Brands Hype Timeline
Xcel Brands is at this time traded for 1.56. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.05. Xcel is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 1.53. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -1.92%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.46%. The volatility of related hype on Xcel Brands is about 5925.93%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.51. About 36.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 0.43. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. Xcel Brands has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.29. The entity recorded a loss per share of 8.08. The firm had not issued any dividends in recent years. Xcel Brands had 1:10 split on the 25th of March 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 19 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Xcel Brands to cross-verify your projections.Xcel Brands Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Xcel Brands' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Xcel Brands' future price movements. Getting to know how Xcel Brands' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Xcel Brands may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EVTV | Envirotech Vehicles | 0.04 | 9 per month | 8.81 | 0.1 | 23.81 | (17.45) | 471.75 | |
| AREB | American Rebel Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.33) | 10.62 | (11.72) | 30.90 | |
| NCI | Neo Concept International Group | (1.01) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 7.69 | (11.03) | 79.32 | |
| VEEE | Twin Vee Powercats | (0.10) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 13.22 | (14.17) | 62.67 | |
| XWEL | XWELL Inc | 0.03 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.31) | 4.11 | (8.06) | 37.15 | |
| GGR | Gogoro Inc | (0.09) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 6.78 | (7.21) | 23.10 | |
| NWTG | Newton Golf | 0.00 | 0 per month | 6.41 | 0.05 | 12.74 | (7.79) | 37.65 | |
| WNW | Meiwu Technology Co | 0.04 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 7.19 | (10.16) | 25.24 | |
| NVVE | Nuvve Holding Corp | (0.07) | 11 per month | 11.88 | 0.02 | 34.19 | (20.38) | 250.51 | |
| SPHL | Springview Holdings Ltd | 0.08 | 8 per month | 11.60 | 0.10 | 24.22 | (21.38) | 731.10 |
Other Forecasting Options for Xcel Brands
For every potential investor in Xcel, whether a beginner or expert, Xcel Brands' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Xcel Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Xcel. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Xcel Brands' price trends.Xcel Brands Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Xcel Brands stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Xcel Brands could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Xcel Brands by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Xcel Brands Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Xcel Brands stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Xcel Brands shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Xcel Brands stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Xcel Brands entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 3749.55 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.12) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 1.54 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 1.54 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.015 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.02) |
Xcel Brands Risk Indicators
The analysis of Xcel Brands' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Xcel Brands' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting xcel stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.95 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 5.68 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.4 | |||
| Variance | 40.91 | |||
| Downside Variance | 38.65 | |||
| Semi Variance | 32.32 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (6.05) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Xcel Brands
The number of cover stories for Xcel Brands depends on current market conditions and Xcel Brands' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Xcel Brands is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Xcel Brands' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Xcel Brands Short Properties
Xcel Brands' future price predictability will typically decrease when Xcel Brands' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Xcel Brands often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Xcel Brands' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Xcel Brands' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.3 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Xcel Brands to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Xcel Stock refer to our How to Trade Xcel Stock guide.You can also try the Analyst Advice module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.
Is Specialty Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Xcel Brands. If investors know Xcel will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Xcel Brands listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Xcel Brands is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Xcel that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Xcel Brands' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Xcel Brands' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Xcel Brands' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Xcel Brands' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Xcel Brands' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Xcel Brands is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Xcel Brands' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.