XChange TECINC Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| XHG Stock | 0.97 0.13 11.82% |
XChange Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of XChange TECINC's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 1st of February 2026, The relative strength index (RSI) of XChange TECINC's share price is at 53. This entails that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling XChange TECINC, making its price go up or down. Momentum 53
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Revenue Growth 1.289 |
Using XChange TECINC hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of XChange TECINC from the perspective of XChange TECINC response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of XChange TECINC on the next trading day is expected to be 0.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.27. XChange TECINC after-hype prediction price | USD 0.98 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of XChange TECINC to cross-verify your projections. XChange TECINC Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine XChange price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for XChange using various technical indicators. When you analyze XChange charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
XChange TECINC Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of XChange TECINC on the next trading day is expected to be 0.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.27.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict XChange Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that XChange TECINC's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
XChange TECINC Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest XChange TECINC | XChange TECINC Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
XChange TECINC Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting XChange TECINC's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. XChange TECINC's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 7.88, respectively. We have considered XChange TECINC's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of XChange TECINC stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent XChange TECINC stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.645 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.005 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0378 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0392 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.2663 |
Predictive Modules for XChange TECINC
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as XChange TECINC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.XChange TECINC After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of XChange TECINC at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in XChange TECINC or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of XChange TECINC, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
XChange TECINC Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting XChange TECINC's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on XChange TECINC's historical news coverage. XChange TECINC's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.05 and 7.89, respectively. We have considered XChange TECINC's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
XChange TECINC is abnormally volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of XChange TECINC is based on 3 months time horizon.
XChange TECINC Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as XChange TECINC is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading XChange TECINC backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with XChange TECINC, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.36 | 6.91 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 3 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 3 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
0.97 | 0.98 | 1.03 |
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XChange TECINC Hype Timeline
On the 1st of February XChange TECINC is traded for 0.97. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.06. XChange is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 0.98 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price rise on the next news is projected to be 1.03%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.36%. The volatility of related hype on XChange TECINC is about 4094.81%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.91. The company reported the last year's revenue of 360.54 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (738.73 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 13.57 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 3 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of XChange TECINC to cross-verify your projections.XChange TECINC Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to XChange TECINC's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict XChange TECINC's future price movements. Getting to know how XChange TECINC's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how XChange TECINC may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FDVA | Freedom Bank of | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.15 | 1.68 | (0.44) | 3.35 | |
| PSWR | Prism Software | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| BWFG | Bankwell Financial Group | 0.49 | 6 per month | 1.57 | 0.06 | 2.65 | (2.04) | 8.30 | |
| QBEIF | QBE Insurance Group | (0.01) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 0.00 | (0.45) | 6.51 | |
| NWUC | Nationwide Utilities | 0.00 | 6 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| TTWO | Take Two Interactive Software | (2.00) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 2.27 | (1.73) | 9.50 | |
| CHKP | Check Point Software | (0.01) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.18 | (2.74) | 9.86 | |
| WF | Woori Financial Group | 0.18 | 8 per month | 1.46 | 0.11 | 3.13 | (2.65) | 7.81 |
Other Forecasting Options for XChange TECINC
For every potential investor in XChange, whether a beginner or expert, XChange TECINC's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. XChange Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in XChange. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying XChange TECINC's price trends.XChange TECINC Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with XChange TECINC stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of XChange TECINC could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing XChange TECINC by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
XChange TECINC Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how XChange TECINC stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading XChange TECINC shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying XChange TECINC stock market strength indicators, traders can identify XChange TECINC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
XChange TECINC Risk Indicators
The analysis of XChange TECINC's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in XChange TECINC's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting xchange stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.45 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.75 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.79 | |||
| Variance | 46.05 | |||
| Downside Variance | 28.36 | |||
| Semi Variance | 22.59 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (5.97) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for XChange TECINC
The number of cover stories for XChange TECINC depends on current market conditions and XChange TECINC's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that XChange TECINC is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about XChange TECINC's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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XChange TECINC Short Properties
XChange TECINC's future price predictability will typically decrease when XChange TECINC's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of XChange TECINC often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential XChange TECINC's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. XChange TECINC's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 8724.00 | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 12.8 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of XChange TECINC to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in XChange Stock please use our How to Invest in XChange TECINC guide.You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.
Can Real Estate Management & Development industry sustain growth momentum? Does XChange have expansion opportunities? Factors like these will boost the valuation of XChange TECINC. Anticipated expansion of XChange directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Determining accurate worth demands scrutiny of both present operating results and projected expansion capacity. Evaluating XChange TECINC demands reviewing these metrics collectively while recognizing certain factors exert disproportionate influence.
The market value of XChange TECINC is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of XChange that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of XChange TECINC's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is XChange TECINC's true underlying value. Market participants employ diverse analytical approaches to determine fair value and identify buying opportunities when prices dip below calculated worth. Because XChange TECINC's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect XChange TECINC's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between XChange TECINC's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if XChange TECINC is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Meanwhile, XChange TECINC's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.