Consumer Staples Etf Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| XLP Etf | USD 82.91 0.64 0.78% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Consumer Staples Select on the next trading day is expected to be 82.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46 and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.58. Consumer Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of today the relative strength momentum indicator of Consumer Staples' share price is below 20 . This entails that the etf is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Consumer Staples hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Consumer Staples Select from the perspective of Consumer Staples response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Consumer Staples using Consumer Staples' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Consumer using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Consumer Staples' stock price.
Consumer Staples Implied Volatility | 0.21 |
Consumer Staples' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Consumer Staples Select stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Consumer Staples' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Consumer Staples stock will not fluctuate a lot when Consumer Staples' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Consumer Staples Select on the next trading day is expected to be 82.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46 and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.58. Consumer Staples after-hype prediction price | USD 82.9 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Consumer | Build AI portfolio with Consumer Etf |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Consumer contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Consumer Staples Select will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0131% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Consumer Staples trading at USD 82.91, that is roughly USD 0.0109 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Consumer Staples' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Consumer Staples Select options at the current volatility level of 0.21%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Consumer Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Consumer Staples' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Consumer Staples' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Consumer Staples stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Consumer Staples' open interest, investors have to compare it to Consumer Staples' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Consumer Staples is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Consumer. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Consumer Staples Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Consumer price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Consumer using various technical indicators. When you analyze Consumer charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Consumer Staples Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Consumer Staples Select on the next trading day is expected to be 82.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46, mean absolute percentage error of 0.37, and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.58.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Consumer Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Consumer Staples' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Consumer Staples Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Consumer Staples | Consumer Staples Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Consumer Staples Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Consumer Staples' Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Consumer Staples' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 82.12 and 83.70, respectively. We have considered Consumer Staples' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Consumer Staples etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Consumer Staples etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.2851 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.085 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4597 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0059 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 27.58 |
Predictive Modules for Consumer Staples
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Consumer Staples Select. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Consumer Staples After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Consumer Staples at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Consumer Staples or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of Consumer Staples, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Consumer Staples Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Consumer Staples' etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Consumer Staples' historical news coverage. Consumer Staples' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 82.11 and 83.69, respectively. We have considered Consumer Staples' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Consumer Staples is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Consumer Staples Select is based on 3 months time horizon.
Consumer Staples Etf Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as Consumer Staples is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Consumer Staples backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Consumer Staples, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.09 | 0.79 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 11 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
82.91 | 82.90 | 0.01 |
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Consumer Staples Hype Timeline
On the 25th of January Consumer Staples Select is traded for 82.91. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Consumer is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 82.9. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.01%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.09%. The volatility of related hype on Consumer Staples is about 240.85%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 82.94. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 7.58. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Consumer Staples to cross-verify your projections.Consumer Staples Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Consumer Staples' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Consumer Staples' future price movements. Getting to know how Consumer Staples' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Consumer Staples may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| VONV | Vanguard Russell 1000 | (0.16) | 18 per month | 0.50 | 0.04 | 1.34 | (1.05) | 3.01 | |
| SPMD | SPDR Russell Small | (0.49) | 7 per month | 0.79 | 0.03 | 1.80 | (1.37) | 3.78 | |
| IWS | iShares Russell Mid Cap | 0.21 | 8 per month | 0.68 | 0.03 | 1.58 | (1.24) | 3.47 | |
| DGRW | WisdomTree Quality Dividend | 0.13 | 2 per month | 0.51 | (0.08) | 0.90 | (0.95) | 2.88 | |
| SPEM | SPDR Portfolio Emerging | 0.10 | 7 per month | 0.49 | 0.01 | 1.10 | (1.01) | 2.92 | |
| VFH | Vanguard Financials Index | (0.27) | 3 per month | 0.92 | (0.05) | 1.40 | (1.74) | 4.47 | |
| ESGU | iShares ESG Aware | 0.73 | 8 per month | 0.82 | (0.05) | 1.14 | (1.25) | 3.72 | |
| VHT | Vanguard Health Care | (0.16) | 3 per month | 0.44 | 0.06 | 1.94 | (1.04) | 3.83 | |
| VHCIX | Vanguard Health Care | 0.17 | 1 per month | 0.50 | 0.06 | 1.96 | (1.02) | 4.43 | |
| IWO | iShares Russell 2000 | 3.02 | 6 per month | 1.39 | 0.01 | 1.91 | (2.14) | 5.52 |
Other Forecasting Options for Consumer Staples
For every potential investor in Consumer, whether a beginner or expert, Consumer Staples' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Consumer Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Consumer. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Consumer Staples' price trends.Consumer Staples Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Consumer Staples etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Consumer Staples could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Consumer Staples by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Consumer Staples Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Consumer Staples etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Consumer Staples shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Consumer Staples etf market strength indicators, traders can identify Consumer Staples Select entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Consumer Staples Risk Indicators
The analysis of Consumer Staples' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Consumer Staples' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting consumer etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5875 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.5926 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.7714 | |||
| Variance | 0.595 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.5003 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.3512 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.66) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Consumer Staples
The number of cover stories for Consumer Staples depends on current market conditions and Consumer Staples' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Consumer Staples is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Consumer Staples' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Consumer Staples to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the AI Portfolio Prophet module to use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities.
The market value of Consumer Staples Select is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Consumer that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Consumer Staples' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Consumer Staples' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Consumer Staples' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Consumer Staples' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Consumer Staples' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Consumer Staples is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Consumer Staples' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.