Solitario Exploration Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| XPL Stock | USD 0.71 0.04 5.33% |
Solitario Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Solitario Exploration's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Solitario Exploration's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Solitario Exploration fundamentals over time.
As of now, The relative strength momentum indicator of Solitario Exploration's share price is at 52. This entails that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Solitario Exploration, making its price go up or down. Momentum 52
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.01) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.04) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.09) | Wall Street Target Price 1.5 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.19) |
Using Solitario Exploration hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Solitario Exploration Royalty from the perspective of Solitario Exploration response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Solitario Exploration Royalty on the next trading day is expected to be 0.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.02. Solitario Exploration after-hype prediction price | USD 0.71 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Solitario | Build AI portfolio with Solitario Stock |
Solitario Exploration Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Solitario price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Solitario using various technical indicators. When you analyze Solitario charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Solitario Exploration Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Solitario Exploration Royalty on the next trading day is expected to be 0.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0005, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.02.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Solitario Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Solitario Exploration's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Solitario Exploration Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Solitario Exploration | Solitario Exploration Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Solitario Exploration Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Solitario Exploration's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Solitario Exploration's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 3.97, respectively. We have considered Solitario Exploration's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Solitario Exploration stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Solitario Exploration stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0029 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0173 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0268 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.0228 |
Predictive Modules for Solitario Exploration
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Solitario Exploration. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Solitario Exploration After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Solitario Exploration at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Solitario Exploration or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Solitario Exploration, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Solitario Exploration Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Solitario Exploration's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Solitario Exploration's historical news coverage. Solitario Exploration's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.04 and 3.96, respectively. We have considered Solitario Exploration's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Solitario Exploration is dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Solitario Exploration is based on 3 months time horizon.
Solitario Exploration Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Solitario Exploration is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Solitario Exploration backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Solitario Exploration, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.12 | 3.25 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 3 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 3 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
0.71 | 0.71 | 0.00 |
|
Solitario Exploration Hype Timeline
On the 27th of January Solitario Exploration is traded for 0.71. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.01. Solitario is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.12%. %. The volatility of related hype on Solitario Exploration is about 4717.74%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.70. About 17.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders. The book value of Solitario Exploration was at this time reported as 0.27. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.06. Solitario Exploration had not issued any dividends in recent years. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 3 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Solitario Exploration to cross-verify your projections.Solitario Exploration Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Solitario Exploration's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Solitario Exploration's future price movements. Getting to know how Solitario Exploration's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Solitario Exploration may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TSE | Trinseo SA | (0.04) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 14.58 | (12.70) | 53.43 | |
| LGO | Largo Resources | (0.06) | 4 per month | 4.11 | 0.04 | 9.17 | (6.54) | 20.11 | |
| LITM | Snow Lake Resources | (0.38) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 10.77 | (9.95) | 23.48 | |
| KBSX | FST Corp Ordinary | (0.01) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.72 | (2.67) | 12.61 | |
| GRO | Brazil Potash Corp | (0.05) | 8 per month | 4.14 | 0.05 | 6.53 | (6.56) | 16.70 | |
| PZG | Paramount Gold Nevada | 0.12 | 6 per month | 2.94 | 0.17 | 11.11 | (4.90) | 19.02 | |
| ELBM | Electra Battery Materials | 0.03 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 9.47 | (9.52) | 23.01 | |
| LOOP | Loop Industries | 0.01 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 6.74 | (6.42) | 26.83 | |
| FMST | Foremost Lithium Resource | (0.24) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 8.02 | (8.37) | 23.04 |
Other Forecasting Options for Solitario Exploration
For every potential investor in Solitario, whether a beginner or expert, Solitario Exploration's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Solitario Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Solitario. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Solitario Exploration's price trends.Solitario Exploration Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Solitario Exploration stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Solitario Exploration could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Solitario Exploration by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Solitario Exploration Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Solitario Exploration stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Solitario Exploration shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Solitario Exploration stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Solitario Exploration Royalty entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.95 | |||
| Day Median Price | 0.71 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 0.71 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.02) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.04) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 52.21 |
Solitario Exploration Risk Indicators
The analysis of Solitario Exploration's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Solitario Exploration's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting solitario stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.65 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.07 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.44 | |||
| Variance | 11.83 | |||
| Downside Variance | 14.8 | |||
| Semi Variance | 9.41 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.31) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Solitario Exploration
The number of cover stories for Solitario Exploration depends on current market conditions and Solitario Exploration's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Solitario Exploration is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Solitario Exploration's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Solitario Exploration Short Properties
Solitario Exploration's future price predictability will typically decrease when Solitario Exploration's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Solitario Exploration Royalty often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Solitario Exploration's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Solitario Exploration's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 81 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 5.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Solitario Exploration to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.
Is Diversified Metals & Mining space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Solitario Exploration. If investors know Solitario will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Solitario Exploration listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.06) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.19) | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of Solitario Exploration is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Solitario that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Solitario Exploration's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Solitario Exploration's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Solitario Exploration's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Solitario Exploration's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Solitario Exploration's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Solitario Exploration is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Solitario Exploration's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.