Yara International Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

YAR Stock  NOK 310.60  1.90  0.61%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Yara International ASA on the next trading day is expected to be 312.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.94 and the sum of the absolute errors of 281.32. Yara Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A four-period moving average forecast model for Yara International ASA is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Yara International 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 30th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Yara International ASA on the next trading day is expected to be 312.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.94, mean absolute percentage error of 39.66, and the sum of the absolute errors of 281.32.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Yara Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Yara International's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Yara International Stock Forecast Pattern

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Yara International Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Yara International's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Yara International's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 310.92 and 313.58, respectively. We have considered Yara International's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
310.60
310.92
Downside
312.25
Expected Value
313.58
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Yara International stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Yara International stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.4394
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.7206
MADMean absolute deviation4.9355
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0151
SAESum of the absolute errors281.325
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Yara International. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Yara International ASA and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Yara International

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Yara International ASA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
311.16312.50313.84
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
271.15272.49343.75
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Yara International

For every potential investor in Yara, whether a beginner or expert, Yara International's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Yara Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Yara. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Yara International's price trends.

Yara International Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Yara International stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Yara International could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Yara International by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Yara International ASA Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Yara International's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Yara International's current price.

Yara International Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Yara International stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Yara International shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Yara International stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Yara International ASA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Yara International Risk Indicators

The analysis of Yara International's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Yara International's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting yara stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Yara Stock

Yara International financial ratios help investors to determine whether Yara Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Yara with respect to the benefits of owning Yara International security.