Home Capital Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

YHCR Stock   7.15  0.00  0.00%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Home Capital Rentals on the next trading day is expected to be 7.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.00 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.00. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast Home Capital's stock prices and determine the direction of Home Capital Rentals's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Home Capital's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Check out Your Current Watchlist to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors.
  
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Home Capital works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Home Capital Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Home Capital Rentals on the next trading day is expected to be 7.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.00, mean absolute percentage error of 0.00, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.00.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Home Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Home Capital's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Home Capital Stock Forecast Pattern

Home Capital Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Home Capital's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Home Capital's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 7.15 and 7.15, respectively. We have considered Home Capital's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
7.15
7.15
Expected Value
7.15
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Home Capital stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Home Capital stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0
SAESum of the absolute errors0.0
When Home Capital Rentals prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Home Capital Rentals trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Home Capital observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Home Capital

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Home Capital Rentals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Other Forecasting Options for Home Capital

For every potential investor in Home, whether a beginner or expert, Home Capital's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Home Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Home. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Home Capital's price trends.

Home Capital Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Home Capital stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Home Capital could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Home Capital by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Home Capital Rentals Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Home Capital's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Home Capital's current price.

Home Capital Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Home Capital stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Home Capital shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Home Capital stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Home Capital Rentals entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.