Zalando SE Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| ZAL Stock | EUR 25.17 0.00 0.00% |
Zalando Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Zalando SE stock prices and determine the direction of Zalando SE's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Zalando SE's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength momentum indicator of Zalando SE's stock price is about 66. This usually means that the stock is rather overbought by investors at the present time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Zalando, making its price go up or down. Momentum 66
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Zalando SE hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Zalando SE from the perspective of Zalando SE response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Zalando SE on the next trading day is expected to be 25.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.58. Zalando SE after-hype prediction price | EUR 25.19 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Zalando |
Zalando SE Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Zalando price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Zalando using various technical indicators. When you analyze Zalando charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Zalando SE Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 28th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Zalando SE on the next trading day is expected to be 25.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19, mean absolute percentage error of 0.12, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.58.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Zalando Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Zalando SE's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Zalando SE Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Zalando SE | Zalando SE Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Zalando SE Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Zalando SE's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Zalando SE's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 24.08 and 26.32, respectively. We have considered Zalando SE's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Zalando SE stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Zalando SE stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.9976 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1898 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0079 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.5792 |
Predictive Modules for Zalando SE
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Zalando SE. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Zalando SE After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Zalando SE at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Zalando SE or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Zalando SE, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Zalando SE Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Zalando SE's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Zalando SE's historical news coverage. Zalando SE's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 24.07 and 26.31, respectively. We have considered Zalando SE's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Zalando SE is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Zalando SE is based on 3 months time horizon.
Zalando SE Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Zalando SE is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Zalando SE backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Zalando SE, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.14 | 1.12 | 0.02 | 0.26 | 1 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Very soon |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
25.17 | 25.19 | 0.08 |
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Zalando SE Hype Timeline
Zalando SE is at this time traded for 25.17on Berlin Exchange of Germany. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.26. Zalando is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 25.19 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is forecasted to be 0.08%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.14%. The volatility of related hype on Zalando SE is about 60.11%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 24.91. The company reported the revenue of 10.57 B. Net Income was 251.1 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next expected press release will be very soon. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Zalando SE to cross-verify your projections.Zalando SE Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Zalando SE's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Zalando SE's future price movements. Getting to know how Zalando SE's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Zalando SE may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| RHO | ROCHE HLDG | (2.20) | 4 per month | 1.39 | 0.09 | 2.24 | (2.20) | 8.07 | |
| DAP | DANAHER | (3.40) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 2.32 | (2.98) | 8.54 | |
| W8V | BANK OF CHINA | 0.01 | 4 per month | 2.70 | (0.01) | 2.08 | (2.04) | 24.03 |
Other Forecasting Options for Zalando SE
For every potential investor in Zalando, whether a beginner or expert, Zalando SE's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Zalando Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Zalando. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Zalando SE's price trends.Zalando SE Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Zalando SE stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Zalando SE could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Zalando SE by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Zalando SE Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Zalando SE stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Zalando SE shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Zalando SE stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Zalando SE entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Zalando SE Risk Indicators
The analysis of Zalando SE's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Zalando SE's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting zalando stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.6067 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.4103 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.22 | |||
| Variance | 1.49 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.48 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.1684 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.68) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Zalando SE
The number of cover stories for Zalando SE depends on current market conditions and Zalando SE's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Zalando SE is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Zalando SE's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in Zalando Stock
Zalando SE financial ratios help investors to determine whether Zalando Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Zalando with respect to the benefits of owning Zalando SE security.