China Southern Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ZNHDelisted Stock | USD 36.97 0.28 0.75% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of China Southern Airlines on the next trading day is expected to be 38.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.64 and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.27. China Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of China Southern's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
China |
China Southern Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of China Southern Airlines on the next trading day is expected to be 38.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.64, mean absolute percentage error of 0.64, and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.27.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict China Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that China Southern's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
China Southern Stock Forecast Pattern
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Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of China Southern stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent China Southern stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.6565 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6438 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.019 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 39.2699 |
Predictive Modules for China Southern
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as China Southern Airlines. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.China Southern Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with China Southern stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of China Southern could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing China Southern by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
China Southern Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how China Southern stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading China Southern shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying China Southern stock market strength indicators, traders can identify China Southern Airlines entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
China Southern Risk Indicators
The analysis of China Southern's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in China Southern's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting china stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.6 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.39 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.1 | |||
| Variance | 4.39 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.27 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.93 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.90) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Check out Your Current Watchlist to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors. You can also try the Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.
Other Consideration for investing in China Stock
If you are still planning to invest in China Southern Airlines check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the China Southern's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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