Virtus Global Fund Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| ZTR Fund | USD 6.44 0.05 0.77% |
Virtus Fund outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of today, The relative strength index (RSI) of Virtus Global's share price is at 58. This usually means that the fund is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Virtus Global, making its price go up or down. Momentum 58
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Virtus Global hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Virtus Global Dividend from the perspective of Virtus Global response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Virtus Global Dividend on the next trading day is expected to be 6.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.41. Virtus Global after-hype prediction price | USD 6.54 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Virtus |
Virtus Global Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Virtus price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Virtus using various technical indicators. When you analyze Virtus charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Virtus Global Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Virtus Global Dividend on the next trading day is expected to be 6.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.41.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Virtus Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Virtus Global's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Virtus Global Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Virtus Global | Virtus Global Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Virtus Global Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Virtus Global's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Virtus Global's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.77 and 7.11, respectively. We have considered Virtus Global's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Virtus Global fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Virtus Global fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.2043 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0042 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0402 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0063 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.41 |
Predictive Modules for Virtus Global
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Virtus Global Dividend. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Virtus Global's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Virtus Global After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Virtus Global at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Virtus Global or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Fund prices, such as prices of Virtus Global, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Virtus Global Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Virtus Global's fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Virtus Global's historical news coverage. Virtus Global's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 5.87 and 7.21, respectively. We have considered Virtus Global's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Virtus Global is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Virtus Global Dividend is based on 3 months time horizon.
Virtus Global Fund Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Fund such as Virtus Global is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Virtus Global backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Virtus Global, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.04 | 0.67 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 1 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | Very soon |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
6.44 | 6.54 | 1.55 |
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Virtus Global Hype Timeline
On the 3rd of February Virtus Global Dividend is traded for 6.44. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.1, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Virtus is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 6.54 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 26.48%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 1.55%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.04%. The volatility of related hype on Virtus Global is about 173.13%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6.46. The company reported the last year's revenue of 18.72 M. Total Income to common stockholders was 10.34 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 18.04 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be very soon. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Virtus Global to cross-verify your projections.Virtus Global Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Virtus Global's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Virtus Global's future price movements. Getting to know how Virtus Global's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Virtus Global may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PRJPX | T Rowe Price | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.66 | 0.15 | 1.73 | (1.86) | 15.28 | |
| SPVYX | Simt Small Cap | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.54 | 0.16 | 2.73 | (1.38) | 10.12 | |
| MIN | MFS Intermediate Income | (0.02) | 9 per month | 0.39 | (0.05) | 0.78 | (0.77) | 3.08 | |
| EFT | Eaton Vance Floating | 0.01 | 9 per month | 0.33 | (0.1) | 0.81 | (0.63) | 2.52 | |
| CPZ | Calamos LongShort Equity | (0.09) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 0.75 | (0.82) | 2.77 | |
| SWYOX | Schwab Target 2065 | 3.83 | 5 per month | 0.71 | 0 | 1.07 | (1.17) | 2.85 | |
| PJIZX | Prudential Qma International | 0.11 | 1 per month | 0.21 | 0.18 | 1.57 | (1.19) | 11.06 | |
| HYI | Western Asset High | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 0.63 | (0.64) | 1.47 | |
| ARTLX | Artisan Value Fund | (0.02) | 1 per month | 0.28 | 0.12 | 1.45 | (1.27) | 17.22 | |
| BGT | BlackRock Floating Rate | 0.05 | 3 per month | 0.71 | (0.09) | 0.64 | (0.97) | 2.87 |
Other Forecasting Options for Virtus Global
For every potential investor in Virtus, whether a beginner or expert, Virtus Global's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Virtus Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Virtus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Virtus Global's price trends.Virtus Global Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Virtus Global fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Virtus Global could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Virtus Global by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Virtus Global Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Virtus Global fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Virtus Global shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Virtus Global fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Virtus Global Dividend entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Virtus Global Risk Indicators
The analysis of Virtus Global's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Virtus Global's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting virtus fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5478 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.6755 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.6504 | |||
| Variance | 0.423 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.5944 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.4562 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.54) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Virtus Global
The number of cover stories for Virtus Global depends on current market conditions and Virtus Global's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Virtus Global is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Virtus Global's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in Virtus Fund
Virtus Global financial ratios help investors to determine whether Virtus Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Virtus with respect to the benefits of owning Virtus Global security.
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