China Reform (China) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 11.04
| 000503 Stock | 13.54 0.66 4.65% |
China |
China Reform Target Price Odds to finish below 11.04
The tendency of China Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 11.04 or more in 90 days |
| 13.54 | 90 days | 11.04 | about 58.23 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of China Reform to drop to 11.04 or more in 90 days from now is about 58.23 (This China Reform Health probability density function shows the probability of China Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of China Reform Health price to stay between 11.04 and its current price of 13.54 at the end of the 90-day period is about 24.02 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon China Reform has a beta of 0.0259. This suggests as returns on the market go up, China Reform average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding China Reform Health will be expected to be much smaller as well. Moreover China Reform Health has an alpha of 1.1456, implying that it can generate a 1.15 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). China Reform Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for China Reform
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as China Reform Health. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.China Reform Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. China Reform is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the China Reform's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold China Reform Health, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of China Reform within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 1.15 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.03 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.48 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.22 |
China Reform Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of China Reform for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for China Reform Health can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| China Reform Health appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the revenue of 330.13 M. Net Loss for the year was (79.79 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 64.46 M. | |
| China Reform generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| About 30.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: China Stocks Rise on Reform Hopes, Steady Interest Rates - Marketscreener.com |
China Reform Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of China Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential China Reform's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. China Reform's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 984.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.4 B |
China Reform Technical Analysis
China Reform's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. China Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of China Reform Health. In general, you should focus on analyzing China Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
China Reform Predictive Forecast Models
China Reform's time-series forecasting models is one of many China Reform's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary China Reform's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about China Reform Health
Checking the ongoing alerts about China Reform for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for China Reform Health help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| China Reform Health appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the revenue of 330.13 M. Net Loss for the year was (79.79 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 64.46 M. | |
| China Reform generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| About 30.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: China Stocks Rise on Reform Hopes, Steady Interest Rates - Marketscreener.com |
Other Information on Investing in China Stock
China Reform financial ratios help investors to determine whether China Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in China with respect to the benefits of owning China Reform security.