Changzhou Almaden (China) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 17.05
| 002623 Stock | 17.26 0.14 0.80% |
Changzhou |
Changzhou Almaden Target Price Odds to finish below 17.05
The tendency of Changzhou Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 17.05 or more in 90 days |
| 17.26 | 90 days | 17.05 | about 68.68 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Changzhou Almaden to drop to 17.05 or more in 90 days from now is about 68.68 (This Changzhou Almaden Co probability density function shows the probability of Changzhou Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Changzhou Almaden price to stay between 17.05 and its current price of 17.26 at the end of the 90-day period is nearly 4.51 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Changzhou Almaden has a beta of 0.0257. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Changzhou Almaden average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Changzhou Almaden Co will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Changzhou Almaden Co has an alpha of 0.1735, implying that it can generate a 0.17 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Changzhou Almaden Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Changzhou Almaden
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Changzhou Almaden. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Changzhou Almaden Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Changzhou Almaden is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Changzhou Almaden's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Changzhou Almaden Co, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Changzhou Almaden within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.17 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.03 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.59 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.02 |
Changzhou Almaden Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Changzhou Almaden for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Changzhou Almaden can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Changzhou Almaden had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| About 43.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Changzhou Almaden Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Changzhou Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Changzhou Almaden's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Changzhou Almaden's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 199.1 M |
Changzhou Almaden Technical Analysis
Changzhou Almaden's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Changzhou Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Changzhou Almaden Co. In general, you should focus on analyzing Changzhou Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Changzhou Almaden Predictive Forecast Models
Changzhou Almaden's time-series forecasting models is one of many Changzhou Almaden's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Changzhou Almaden's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Changzhou Almaden
Checking the ongoing alerts about Changzhou Almaden for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Changzhou Almaden help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Changzhou Almaden had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| About 43.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Other Information on Investing in Changzhou Stock
Changzhou Almaden financial ratios help investors to determine whether Changzhou Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Changzhou with respect to the benefits of owning Changzhou Almaden security.