CTBC 20 (Taiwan) Odds of Future Etf Price Finishing Under 31.19
| 00862B Etf | TWD 34.51 0.11 0.32% |
CTBC |
CTBC 20 Target Price Odds to finish below 31.19
The tendency of CTBC Etf price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to NT$ 31.19 or more in 90 days |
| 34.51 | 90 days | 31.19 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of CTBC 20 to drop to NT$ 31.19 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This CTBC 20 Year probability density function shows the probability of CTBC Etf to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of CTBC 20 Year price to stay between NT$ 31.19 and its current price of NT$34.51 at the end of the 90-day period is about 75.46 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon CTBC 20 has a beta of 0.0772. This suggests as returns on the market go up, CTBC 20 average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding CTBC 20 Year will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally CTBC 20 Year has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. CTBC 20 Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for CTBC 20
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CTBC 20 Year. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.CTBC 20 Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. CTBC 20 is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the CTBC 20's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold CTBC 20 Year, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of CTBC 20 within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.02 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.08 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.58 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.21 |
CTBC 20 Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of CTBC Etf often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential CTBC 20's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CTBC 20's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day | 218k | |
| Average Daily Volume In Three Month | 212.09k |
CTBC 20 Technical Analysis
CTBC 20's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. CTBC Etf technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of CTBC 20 Year. In general, you should focus on analyzing CTBC Etf price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
CTBC 20 Predictive Forecast Models
CTBC 20's time-series forecasting models is one of many CTBC 20's etf analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary CTBC 20's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the etf market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards CTBC 20 in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, CTBC 20's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from CTBC 20 options trading.
Other Information on Investing in CTBC Etf
CTBC 20 financial ratios help investors to determine whether CTBC Etf is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in CTBC with respect to the benefits of owning CTBC 20 security.