Guidewire Software (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 189.34
| 0GS Stock | 190.65 0.40 0.21% |
Guidewire |
Guidewire Software Target Price Odds to finish below 189.34
The tendency of Guidewire Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 189.34 or more in 90 days |
| 190.65 | 90 days | 189.34 | about 90.99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Guidewire Software to drop to 189.34 or more in 90 days from now is about 90.99 (This Guidewire Software probability density function shows the probability of Guidewire Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Guidewire Software price to stay between 189.34 and its current price of 190.65 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.22 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Guidewire Software has a beta of -0.0693. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Guidewire Software are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Guidewire Software is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Guidewire Software has an alpha of 0.577, implying that it can generate a 0.58 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Guidewire Software Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Guidewire Software
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Guidewire Software. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Guidewire Software's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Guidewire Software Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Guidewire Software is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Guidewire Software's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Guidewire Software, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Guidewire Software within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.58 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.07 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 16.45 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.26 |
Guidewire Software Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Guidewire Software for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Guidewire Software can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The company reported the revenue of 812.61 M. Net Loss for the year was (180.43 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| Guidewire Software generates negative cash flow from operations |
Guidewire Software Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Guidewire Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Guidewire Software's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Guidewire Software's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 84.1 M |
Guidewire Software Technical Analysis
Guidewire Software's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Guidewire Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Guidewire Software. In general, you should focus on analyzing Guidewire Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Guidewire Software Predictive Forecast Models
Guidewire Software's time-series forecasting models is one of many Guidewire Software's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Guidewire Software's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Guidewire Software
Checking the ongoing alerts about Guidewire Software for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Guidewire Software help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The company reported the revenue of 812.61 M. Net Loss for the year was (180.43 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| Guidewire Software generates negative cash flow from operations |
Additional Tools for Guidewire Stock Analysis
When running Guidewire Software's price analysis, check to measure Guidewire Software's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Guidewire Software is operating at the current time. Most of Guidewire Software's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Guidewire Software's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Guidewire Software's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Guidewire Software to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.