Heartland Financial (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 57.55

1H4 Stock  EUR 65.00  0.50  0.78%   
Heartland Financial's future price is the expected price of Heartland Financial instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Heartland Financial USA performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Heartland Financial Backtesting, Heartland Financial Valuation, Heartland Financial Correlation, Heartland Financial Hype Analysis, Heartland Financial Volatility, Heartland Financial History as well as Heartland Financial Performance.
  
Please specify Heartland Financial's target price for which you would like Heartland Financial odds to be computed.

Heartland Financial Target Price Odds to finish over 57.55

The tendency of Heartland Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above € 57.55  in 90 days
 65.00 90 days 57.55 
about 37.69
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Heartland Financial to stay above € 57.55  in 90 days from now is about 37.69 (This Heartland Financial USA probability density function shows the probability of Heartland Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Heartland Financial USA price to stay between € 57.55  and its current price of €65.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 31.94 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Heartland Financial has a beta of 0.53. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Heartland Financial average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Heartland Financial USA will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Heartland Financial USA has an alpha of 0.3854, implying that it can generate a 0.39 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Heartland Financial Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Heartland Financial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Heartland Financial USA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
62.2164.5066.79
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
58.0571.7073.99
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
59.6761.9664.26
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
62.6364.1165.58
Details

Heartland Financial Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Heartland Financial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Heartland Financial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Heartland Financial USA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Heartland Financial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.39
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.53
σ
Overall volatility
5.90
Ir
Information ratio 0.15

Heartland Financial Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Heartland Financial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Heartland Financial USA can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
About 65.0% of the company shares are owned by institutions such as pension funds

Heartland Financial Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Heartland Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Heartland Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Heartland Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding42.5 M
Short Long Term Debt376.1 M
Forward Annual Dividend Rate1.12
Shares Float37 M

Heartland Financial Technical Analysis

Heartland Financial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Heartland Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Heartland Financial USA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Heartland Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Heartland Financial Predictive Forecast Models

Heartland Financial's time-series forecasting models is one of many Heartland Financial's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Heartland Financial's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Heartland Financial USA

Checking the ongoing alerts about Heartland Financial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Heartland Financial USA help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
About 65.0% of the company shares are owned by institutions such as pension funds

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Heartland Stock

When determining whether Heartland Financial USA is a strong investment it is important to analyze Heartland Financial's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Heartland Financial's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Heartland Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Please note, there is a significant difference between Heartland Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Heartland Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Heartland Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.