Universal Microelectronics (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 21.45
| 2413 Stock | TWD 26.20 1.60 5.76% |
Universal |
Universal Microelectronics Target Price Odds to finish over 21.45
The tendency of Universal Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above NT$ 21.45 in 90 days |
| 26.20 | 90 days | 21.45 | about 71.7 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Universal Microelectronics to stay above NT$ 21.45 in 90 days from now is about 71.7 (This Universal Microelectronics Co probability density function shows the probability of Universal Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Universal Microelectronics price to stay between NT$ 21.45 and its current price of NT$26.2 at the end of the 90-day period is about 53.08 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Universal Microelectronics Co has a beta of -0.0595. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Universal Microelectronics are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Universal Microelectronics Co is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Universal Microelectronics Co has an alpha of 0.321, implying that it can generate a 0.32 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Universal Microelectronics Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Universal Microelectronics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Universal Microelectronics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Universal Microelectronics Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Universal Microelectronics is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Universal Microelectronics' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Universal Microelectronics Co, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Universal Microelectronics within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.32 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.06 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.24 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.06 |
Universal Microelectronics Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Universal Microelectronics for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Universal Microelectronics can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Universal Microelectronics had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Universal Microelectronics has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Universal Microelectronics Co has accumulated about 855.5 M in cash with (314.93 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 6.73. | |
| Roughly 51.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Universal Microelectronics Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Universal Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Universal Microelectronics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Universal Microelectronics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 220.2 M |
Universal Microelectronics Technical Analysis
Universal Microelectronics' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Universal Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Universal Microelectronics Co. In general, you should focus on analyzing Universal Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Universal Microelectronics Predictive Forecast Models
Universal Microelectronics' time-series forecasting models is one of many Universal Microelectronics' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Universal Microelectronics' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Universal Microelectronics
Checking the ongoing alerts about Universal Microelectronics for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Universal Microelectronics help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Universal Microelectronics had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Universal Microelectronics has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Universal Microelectronics Co has accumulated about 855.5 M in cash with (314.93 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 6.73. | |
| Roughly 51.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Additional Tools for Universal Stock Analysis
When running Universal Microelectronics' price analysis, check to measure Universal Microelectronics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Universal Microelectronics is operating at the current time. Most of Universal Microelectronics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Universal Microelectronics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Universal Microelectronics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Universal Microelectronics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.