Contec Medical (China) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 11.27
| 300869 Stock | 15.12 0.77 4.85% |
Contec |
Contec Medical Target Price Odds to finish below 11.27
The tendency of Contec Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 11.27 or more in 90 days |
| 15.12 | 90 days | 11.27 | roughly 2.59 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Contec Medical to drop to 11.27 or more in 90 days from now is roughly 2.59 (This Contec Medical Systems probability density function shows the probability of Contec Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Contec Medical Systems price to stay between 11.27 and its current price of 15.12 at the end of the 90-day period is about 58.03 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Contec Medical Systems has a beta of -0.38. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Contec Medical are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Contec Medical Systems is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Contec Medical Systems has an alpha of 0.309, implying that it can generate a 0.31 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Contec Medical Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Contec Medical
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Contec Medical Systems. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Contec Medical Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Contec Medical is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Contec Medical's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Contec Medical Systems, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Contec Medical within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.31 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.38 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.74 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.04 |
Contec Medical Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Contec Medical for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Contec Medical Systems can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Contec Medical had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| About 64.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Contec Medical Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Contec Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Contec Medical's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Contec Medical's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 414.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2 B |
Contec Medical Technical Analysis
Contec Medical's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Contec Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Contec Medical Systems. In general, you should focus on analyzing Contec Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Contec Medical Predictive Forecast Models
Contec Medical's time-series forecasting models is one of many Contec Medical's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Contec Medical's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Contec Medical Systems
Checking the ongoing alerts about Contec Medical for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Contec Medical Systems help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Contec Medical had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| About 64.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Other Information on Investing in Contec Stock
Contec Medical financial ratios help investors to determine whether Contec Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Contec with respect to the benefits of owning Contec Medical security.