Hualan Group (China) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 13.01
| 301027 Stock | 14.81 0.08 0.54% |
Hualan |
Hualan Group Target Price Odds to finish over 13.01
The tendency of Hualan Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above 13.01 in 90 days |
| 14.81 | 90 days | 13.01 | about 11.03 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Hualan Group to stay above 13.01 in 90 days from now is about 11.03 (This Hualan Group Co probability density function shows the probability of Hualan Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Hualan Group price to stay between 13.01 and its current price of 14.81 at the end of the 90-day period is about 8.77 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Hualan Group Co has a beta of -0.47. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Hualan Group are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Hualan Group Co is likely to outperform the market. Moreover Hualan Group Co has an alpha of 1.2645, implying that it can generate a 1.26 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Hualan Group Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Hualan Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hualan Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Hualan Group Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Hualan Group is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Hualan Group's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Hualan Group Co, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Hualan Group within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 1.26 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.47 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.31 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.20 |
Hualan Group Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Hualan Group for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Hualan Group can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Hualan Group is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Hualan Group appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| About 36.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Hualan Group Co., Ltd.s 28 percent Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up - Simply Wall St |
Hualan Group Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Hualan Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Hualan Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Hualan Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 148.3 M |
Hualan Group Technical Analysis
Hualan Group's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Hualan Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Hualan Group Co. In general, you should focus on analyzing Hualan Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Hualan Group Predictive Forecast Models
Hualan Group's time-series forecasting models is one of many Hualan Group's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Hualan Group's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Hualan Group
Checking the ongoing alerts about Hualan Group for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Hualan Group help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Hualan Group is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Hualan Group appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| About 36.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Hualan Group Co., Ltd.s 28 percent Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up - Simply Wall St |
Other Information on Investing in Hualan Stock
Hualan Group financial ratios help investors to determine whether Hualan Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Hualan with respect to the benefits of owning Hualan Group security.