Carbios (Germany) Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 5.5

3C1 Stock  EUR 6.52  0.80  13.99%   
Carbios' future price is the expected price of Carbios instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Carbios performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Carbios Backtesting, Carbios Valuation, Carbios Correlation, Carbios Hype Analysis, Carbios Volatility, Carbios History as well as Carbios Performance.
  
Please specify Carbios' target price for which you would like Carbios odds to be computed.

Carbios Target Price Odds to finish below 5.5

The tendency of Carbios Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to € 5.50  or more in 90 days
 6.52 90 days 5.50 
about 6.58
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Carbios to drop to € 5.50  or more in 90 days from now is about 6.58 (This Carbios probability density function shows the probability of Carbios Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Carbios price to stay between € 5.50  and its current price of €6.52 at the end of the 90-day period is under 4.
Assuming the 90 days horizon Carbios has a beta of -0.44. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Carbios are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Carbios is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Carbios has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Carbios Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Carbios

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Carbios. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.295.7211.61
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.275.4911.38
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
0.115.5011.39
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
5.926.887.83
Details

Carbios Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Carbios is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Carbios' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Carbios, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Carbios within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-1.71
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.44
σ
Overall volatility
4.68
Ir
Information ratio -0.32

Carbios Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Carbios for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Carbios can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Carbios generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Carbios has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Carbios has accumulated about 29.1 M in cash with (9.04 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 3.57.
Roughly 13.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees

Carbios Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Carbios Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Carbios' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Carbios' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding11.2 M

Carbios Technical Analysis

Carbios' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Carbios Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Carbios. In general, you should focus on analyzing Carbios Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Carbios Predictive Forecast Models

Carbios' time-series forecasting models is one of many Carbios' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Carbios' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Carbios

Checking the ongoing alerts about Carbios for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Carbios help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Carbios generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Carbios has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Carbios has accumulated about 29.1 M in cash with (9.04 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 3.57.
Roughly 13.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees

Other Information on Investing in Carbios Stock

Carbios financial ratios help investors to determine whether Carbios Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Carbios with respect to the benefits of owning Carbios security.